hodd v Raufoss prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

hodd 5–1 Raufoss HODD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said hodd win~~52%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.347

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.366

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said hodd win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: hodd 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–25
1′KICK-OFF hodd v Raufoss
12′A goal for hodd on 12′. 0–0 · 50–25–25
12′We said hodd at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–15–10
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' hodd 1–0 Raufoss
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' hodd win: 52% at kick-off, 75% now
13′hodd find the net on 13′. 1–0 · 75–15–10
14′We said hodd at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–3
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' hodd 2–0 Raufoss · J. Berisha (assist J. Robertsen)
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' hodd win: 52% at kick-off, 91% now
22′A goal for hodd on 21′. 2–0 · 91–6–2
22′We said hodd at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–0 · 98–2–1
22′⚽ GOAL · 21' hodd 3–0 Raufoss
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' hodd win: 52% at kick-off, 98% now
32′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Raufoss · On: A. Rogulj · Off: E. Asvestad
32′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Raufoss · On: Y. Agyeman · Off: R. Zekhnini
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Raufoss
45′HALF-TIME hodd 3–0 Raufoss
46′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 94–5–1
46′SECOND HALF hodd 3–0 Raufoss
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' hodd 3–1 Raufoss
47′A goal for Raufoss on 46′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' hodd · On: C. Ondo · Off: S. Hanssen
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Raufoss · On: U. Danbolt · Off: E. Gjerde
67′We said hodd at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' hodd 4–1 Raufoss
68′hodd score on 66′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
68′5 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
69′65′: M. Rawufu on the scoresheet for hodd, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' hodd · On: S. Mikkelsen · Off: M. Rawufu
78′SUBSTITUTION · 46' hodd · On: M. Scarcella · Off: M. Kaarsbo
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Raufoss · On: T. E. Engebakken · Off: E. Froysa
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' hodd · On: H. Urnes · Off: K. Abrahamsen
90′hodd find the net on 90′. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
90′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
90′5–1 at the end. Our 52% on hodd comes in. 5–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' hodd 5–1 Raufoss
90′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Raufoss · On: S. Coulibaly · Off: E. Sildnes Corrected
FTFULL TIME hodd 5–1 Raufoss
FThodd 5–1 Raufoss · hodd win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

hodd are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: hodd 52%, draw 24%, Raufoss 25%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on hodd v RaufossBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

hodd win52%

Draw24%

Raufoss win25%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 27

RefereeO. Valen

Line-ups

hodd

Raufoss

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

hodd

Raufoss

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	hodd	26	−10	35
16	Raufoss	25	−36	20

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

hodd

Formation not confirmed

25 O. Buur

24 J. Robertsen

5 M. Mulac

3 S. Hanssen

14 M. Mikhail

8 T. Kallevag

16 M. Kaarsbo

22 K. Abrahamsen

29 M. Haheim-Elveseter

11 M. Rawufu

20 J. Berisha

Coach · Ivan Poulsen

Substitutes

1 · T. Kinn

21 · A. Roppen

4 · E. Blikstad

2 · C. Ondo

6 · H. Urnes

7 · M. Scarcella

19 · S. Mikkelsen

15 · V. H. Elveseter

9 · C. Streete

Raufoss

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Klemensson

15 E. Gartig

16 M. Larsen

6 E. Froysa

7 E. Sildnes

2 J. Sjol

5 E. Gjerde

11 N. Fremstad

3 E. Asvestad

10 M. Aanesland

27 R. Zekhnini

Coach · Petter Berget Ole

Substitutes

9 · A. Rogulj

12 · M. G. Synstelien D.

14 · Y. Agyeman

22 · S. Coulibaly

25 · T. E. Engebakken

31 · U. Danbolt

Our number · hodd winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

52% The market51%

Us52%

~~Market~~51%

We make hodd a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · hodd v Raufoss~~1.91 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 35 v 20~~7 v 16

~~The market · hodd win~~51% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · hodd win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
hodd win	52%	51%	+1
Draw	24%	24%	0
Raufoss win	25%	25%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	82%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
hodd or draw	75%	75%	0
hodd clean sheet	29%	–	–
Raufoss clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.1 4.8 3.4 1 7.5 10.7 6.3 2.6 2 7.7 9.4 5.9 2.5 3 4.9 6.0 3.7 4 2.4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+hodd down, Raufoss across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,428 1. Division matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.0% of games this season, across 207 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

hodd at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Raufoss away: 1.17 scored, 4.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for hodd, 1.25 for Raufoss. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~RAU 1–1 HOD · HOD 2–4 RAU · RAU 6–1 HOD · RAU 0–1 HOD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug

HODD

DLLLLD2–2 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 1–1

RAUFOSS

LLWLLD0–3 · 1–9 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	26	+38	59
2	Stromsgodset	26	+38	57
3	Kongsvinger	26	+35	56
4	Stabaek	26	+29	49
5	ODD Ballklubb	26	+14	45
6	Bryne	26	+1	39
7	hodd	26	−10	35
8	Egersund	26	−11	33
9	Ranheim	26	−1	32
10	Strommen	26	−12	30
11	Moss	26	−15	29
12	Lyn	26	−17	28
13	Sandnes ULF	26	−13	26
14	Sogndal	25	−17	23
15	Asane	26	−23	23
16	Raufoss	25	−36	20