hodd v Ranheim prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

hodd 1–1 Ranheim RANHEIM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ranheim win~~42%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.929

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.876

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ranheim win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ranheim 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 37–21–42
1′KICK-OFF hodd v Ranheim
45′45′ and it is 1–0: hodd have scored. 1–0 · 64–22–14
45′We said Ranheim at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 64–22–14
45′⚽ GOAL · 51' hodd 1–0 Ranheim
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ranheim win: 42% at kick-off, 14% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' hodd win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Ranheim win 14%)
45′SECOND HALF hodd 1–0 Ranheim
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' hodd · On: M. Scarcella · Off: T. Kallevag
51′SUBSTITUTION · 51' hodd · On: E. Blikstad · Off: S. Hanssen
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Ranheim win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
59′We said Ranheim at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–22–9
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ranheim · On: S. Sjovold · Off: L. Skammelsrud
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ranheim · On: G. Mogensen · Off: S. Haugland
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' hodd · On: H. Urnes · Off: M. Rawufu
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Ranheim
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' T. Kongerud · Ranheim
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ranheim · On: M. Sylva · Off: A. Fossli
73′We said Ranheim at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Ranheim win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ranheim · On: C. Aasbak · Off: N. Pallas
82′🟨 YELLOW · 84' hodd
84′Ranheim find the net on 85′. 1–0. 1–0 · 89–11–1
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' hodd 1–1 Ranheim
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' J. Robertsen · hodd
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Ranheim
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Ranheim win: 42% at kick-off, 11% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Draw is now our likeliest result at 79% (was hodd win 10%)
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' O. Holden · Ranheim
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' hodd · On: J. Berisha · Off: M. Haheim-Elveseter
92′SUBSTITUTION · 89' hodd · On: V. H. Elveseter · Off: C. Streete
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 94' Ranheim win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME hodd 1–1 Ranheim
FThodd 1–1 Ranheim · Ranheim win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on hodd v RanheimBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

hodd win37%

Draw21%

Ranheim win42%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

RefereeA. Medic

Line-ups

hodd

Ranheim

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

hodd

Ranheim

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	hodd	25	-10	34
9	Ranheim	25	-1	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

hodd

Formation not confirmed

25 O. Buur

24 J. Robertsen

5 M. Mulac

3 S. Hanssen

14 M. Mikhail

19 S. Mikkelsen

8 T. Kallevag

16 M. Kaarsbo

29 M. Haheim-Elveseter

9 C. Streete

11 M. Rawufu

Coach · Ivan Poulsen

Substitutes

1 · T. Kinn

4 · E. Blikstad

6 · H. Urnes

7 · M. Scarcella

15 · V. H. Elveseter

20 · J. Berisha

21 · A. Roppen

22 · K. Abrahamsen

27 · G. Andresen

Ranheim

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Storevik

15 K. Rolstad

19 J. Pereira

4 T. Kongerud

5 N. Pallas

8 O. Holden

10 M. Johnsen

25 L. Skammelsrud

17 F. Nyenetue

9 S. Haugland

20 A. Fossli

Coach · Eggen Rismark Christian

Substitutes

3 · C. Aasbak

11 · M. Sylva

12 · O. Madsen

21 · E. Solberg

26 · S. Sjovold

27 · G. Mogensen

Our number · ranheim winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

42% The market46%

Us42%

~~Market~~46%

We make Ranheim a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · hodd v Ranheim~~1.94 – 2.06

~~Last six in 1. Division~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 34 v 31~~7 v 9

~~The market · Ranheim win~~46% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ranheim win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
hodd win	37%	30%	+7
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Ranheim win	42%	46%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	76%	70%	+6
Both teams to score	74%	71%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	91%	87%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	56%	51%	+6
hodd or draw	58%	54%	+4
hodd clean sheet	13%	–	–
Ranheim clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 7.8%

0123450 2.4 3.5 3.9 2.7 1 3.3 7.8 7.4 5.0 2.6 2 3.5 7.0 7.0 4.8 2.5 3 2.3 4.5 4.6 3.1 4 2.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+hodd down, Ranheim across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,420 1. Division matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.9% of games this season, across 199 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

hodd at home: 2.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ranheim away: 2.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for hodd, 2.06 for Ranheim. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~RAN 3–2 HOD · RAN 2–1 HOD · HOD 0–1 RAN · RAN 0–0 HOD

Form · last six in 1. Division

HODD

WDLLLL2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 2–3 · 1–3

RANHEIM

LDDWWL3–5 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 4–1 · 5–0 · 2–6

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kongsvinger	25	39	56
2	Haugesund	25	35	56
3	Stromsgodset	25	34	54
4	Stabaek	25	26	46
5	ODD Ballklubb	25	13	42
6	Bryne	25	1	38
7	hodd	25	-10	34
8	Egersund	25	-11	32
9	Ranheim	25	-1	31
10	Strommen	26	-12	30
11	Lyn	25	-14	28
12	Moss	25	-15	28
13	Sandnes ULF	25	-10	26
14	Sogndal	24	-16	23
15	Asane	26	-23	23
16	Raufoss	24	-36	19