Haugesund v Lyn prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

Haugesund 3–0 Lyn HAUGESUND WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Haugesund win~~66%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.173

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.094

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Haugesund win at 66%.
1′Much as we predicted: Haugesund was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–16–17
1′KICK-OFF Haugesund v Lyn
5′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Lyn
9′🟨 YELLOW · 6' J. Nois · Lyn
28′🟨 YELLOW · 6' J. Nois · Lyn
35′🟨 YELLOW · 6' J. Nois · Lyn
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Haugesund win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
44′We said Haugesund at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–27–19
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Haugesund 1–0 Lyn
45′A goal for Haugesund on 45′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–14–5
45′We published Haugesund at 66%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–14–5
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Haugesund win: 66% at kick-off, 81% now
45′HALF-TIME Haugesund 1–0 Lyn
45′SECOND HALF Haugesund 1–0 Lyn
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lyn · On: W. T. Waehler · Off: J. Nois
50′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Haugesund
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Lyn · On: I. Barnett · Off: S. Haugen
52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' A. Bondhus · Haugesund
58′⚽ GOAL · 59' Haugesund 2–0 Lyn
59′59′ and it is 2–0: Haugesund have scored. 2–0 · 96–3–1
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Haugesund win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
60′We published Haugesund at 66%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Haugesund · On: P. Hannola · Off: B. Leite
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Haugesund · On: A. Grindhaug · Off: L. Remmem
71′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Lyn
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' A. Hellum · Lyn
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lyn · On: A. Memedov · Off: A. Olsen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lyn · On: F. Sock · Off: A. Hellum
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Lyn
81′Haugesund find the net on 81′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Haugesund 3–0 Lyn
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' W. Sell · Lyn
82′We published Haugesund at 66%. Our model now makes it 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Haugesund
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' N. Sandberg · Haugesund
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Haugesund · On: I. Camara · Off: E. Andersen
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Haugesund · On: E. Rohd · Off: S. Nilsen
FTFULL TIME Haugesund 3–0 Lyn
FTHaugesund 3–0 Lyn · Haugesund win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Haugesund v LynBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

Haugesund win66%

Draw17%

Lyn win17%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

VenueHaugesund Stadion

RefereeA. Bodding

Line-ups

Haugesund

Lyn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Haugesund

Lyn

3Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Haugesund	25	35	56
11	Lyn	25	-14	28

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Haugesund

Formation not confirmed

32 F. Stople

18 V. Solheim

3 S. Molde

23 J. Norbye

42 A. Bondhus

14 S. Nilsen

16 B. Leite

11 N. Sandberg

41 L. Remmem

26 E. Andersen

29 S. Diarra

Coach · Endre Eide

Substitutes

7 · E. Rohd

8 · P. Hannola

20 · I. Seone

21 · E. Fauskanger

25 · M. Hope

30 · I. Camara

37 · R. Schifferl

40 · A. Grindhaug

44 · P. E. Lie

Lyn

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Pedersen

55 S. Haugen

3 E. Race

6 A. Midtskogen

4 W. Sell

21 J. Skaug

24 D. Fredriksen

17 J. Nois

9 A. Olsen

11 A. Hellum

10 M. Johansen

Coach · Magnus Aadland

Substitutes

7 · I. Monglo

20 · W. T. Waehler

22 · W. Kurtovic

25 · M. Andersen

26 · A. Memedov

27 · I. Barnett

29 · O. Gueye

30 · F. Sock

Our number · haugesund winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

66% The market75%

Us66%

~~Market~~75%

We make Haugesund a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Haugesund v Lyn~~2.86 – 1.45

~~Last six in 1. Division~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 56 v 28~~2 v 11

~~The market · Haugesund win~~75% · ours 66%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · haugesund win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 66% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Haugesund win	66%	75%	−9
Draw	17%	14%	+2
Lyn win	17%	11%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Both teams to score	72%	64%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	93%	90%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	62%	61%	+1
Haugesund or draw	83%	89%	−7
Haugesund clean sheet	24%	–	–
Lyn clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 1 3.7 6.0 4.1 2 5.6 7.8 5.6 2.7 3 5.2 7.4 5.3 2.6 4 3.7 5.3 3.8 5 2.2 3.1 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Haugesund down, Lyn across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,420 1. Division matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.9% of games this season, across 199 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Haugesund at home: 3.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lyn away: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.86 goals for Haugesund, 1.45 for Lyn. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LYN 2–4 HAU

Form · last six in 1. Division

HAUGESUND

WWWWWD2–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 1–1

LYN

DDWLLL4–4 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kongsvinger	25	39	56
2	Haugesund	25	35	56
3	Stromsgodset	25	34	54
4	Stabaek	25	26	46
5	ODD Ballklubb	25	13	42
6	Bryne	25	1	38
7	hodd	25	-10	34
8	Egersund	25	-11	32
9	Ranheim	25	-1	31
10	Strommen	26	-12	30
11	Lyn	25	-14	28
12	Moss	25	-15	28
13	Sandnes ULF	25	-10	26
14	Sogndal	24	-16	23
15	Asane	26	-23	23
16	Raufoss	24	-36	19