Egersund v Sogndal prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Egersund 3–3 Sogndal EGERSUND WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Egersund win~~50%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.911

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.933

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Egersund win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Egersund was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–27
1′KICK-OFF Egersund v Sogndal
8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Sogndal
17′We said Egersund at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–23–52
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Egersund 0–1 Sogndal
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Egersund win: 50% at kick-off, 25% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Sogndal win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Egersund win 25%)
18′Sogndal ahead on 17′ through K. Arierhi. 0–1. 0–1 · 25–23–53
19′We said Egersund at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–23–53
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Egersund 1–1 Sogndal
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Egersund win: 50% at kick-off, 45% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Egersund win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Sogndal win 26%)
29′A goal for Egersund on 28′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 45–29–26
30′We published Egersund at 50%. Our model now makes it 74%. 2–1 · 74–17–9
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Egersund 2–1 Sogndal
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Egersund win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
31′Egersund score on 30′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 74–17–9
39′We published Egersund at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–17–8
45′HALF-TIME Egersund 2–1 Sogndal
45′SECOND HALF Egersund 2–1 Sogndal
47′4 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 40–35–24
47′Sogndal find the net on 47′. 2–2. 2–2 · 40–35–24
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogndal · On: F. Flo · Off: E. Hovland
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Egersund 2–2 Sogndal
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Egersund win: 50% at kick-off, 40% now
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogndal · On: V. Hagen · Off: L. Gausdal
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sogndal · On: P. Asp · Off: M. Oren
52′We said Egersund at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 2–2 · 38–38–24
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Egersund win 36%)
60′We said Egersund at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 2–2 · 34–44–22
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Egersund · On: S. Vatne · Off: J. Gregersen
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Egersund win: 50% at kick-off, 30% now
74′We said Egersund at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–20–76
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Egersund · On: B. Baxter · Off: R. Gyamfi
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Egersund 2–3 Sogndal
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Egersund win: 50% at kick-off, 4% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Sogndal win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 20%)
75′A goal for Sogndal on 74′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 3–19–77
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Egersund · On: H. Hardarson · Off: S. R. Michalsen
76′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 3–19–78
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sogndal · On: L. Vapne · Off: T. Pippola
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sogndal · On: O. Helen · Off: K. Arierhi
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Sogndal
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Sogndal
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Egersund win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Egersund · On: P. Hovland · Off: B. Maeland
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Egersund · On: J. Jorgensen · Off: K. Eggen
90′Full time, 3–3. We called Egersund at 50% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 3–3 · 0–100–0
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Sogndal
94′Egersund score on 90′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 2–96–1
94′6 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 2–96–1
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Egersund 3–3 Sogndal
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Sogndal win 1%)
FTFULL TIME Egersund 3–3 Sogndal
FTEgersund 3–3 Sogndal · Egersund win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Egersund are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Egersund 50%, draw 23%, Sogndal 27%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Egersund v SogndalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Egersund win50%

Draw23%

Sogndal win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 27

VenueXL-BYGG Sorvest Arena

RefereeM. Koloy

Line-ups

Egersund

Sogndal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Egersund

Sogndal

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Egersund	26	−11	33
14	Sogndal	25	−17	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Egersund

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Eriksen

2 H. Kleppa

31 I. Jonsson

3 B. Maeland

21 K. Eggen

25 J. Gregersen

8 C. Sleveland

16 J. Ekeland

10 S. R. Michalsen

19 R. Gyamfi

7 N. Tornvig

Coach · Martin Falkeborn

Substitutes

1 · M. Zapytowski

18 · P. Hovland

20 · J. Jorgensen

22 · H. Tadesse

24 · M. Sylla

26 · B. Baxter

27 · S. Vatne

28 · H. Hardarson

29 · A. B. Hetland

Sogndal

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Jendal

4 E. Hovland

14 J. Haruna

32 M. Oren

88 R. Onyango

7 H. Woxen

8 L. Gausdal

10 K. Skaanes

35 E. L. Hillestad

19 T. Pippola

9 K. Arierhi

Coach · Eirik Bakke

Substitutes

24 · K. Bieszczad

3 · F. Flo

11 · E. Mensah

15 · O. Helen

16 · L. Vapne

18 · V. Hagen

20 · P. Asp

Our number · egersund winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market52%

Us50%

~~Market~~52%

We make Egersund a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Egersund v Sogndal~~1.94 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 33 v 23~~8 v 14

~~The market · Egersund win~~52% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Egersund win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Egersund win	50%	52%	−2
Draw	23%	23%	0
Sogndal win	27%	26%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	64%	68%	−4
Both teams to score	64%	68%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	48%	−6
Egersund or draw	73%	74%	−1
Egersund clean sheet	26%	–	–
Sogndal clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.5 4.5 3.5 1 6.6 10.3 6.6 3.0 2 6.9 9.2 6.2 2.9 3 4.5 5.9 4.0 4 2.2 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Egersund down, Sogndal across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,428 1. Division matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.0% of games this season, across 207 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Egersund at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sogndal away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Egersund, 1.36 for Sogndal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SOG 4–2 EGE · SOG 0–1 EGE · EGE 0–2 SOG · EGE 0–2 SOG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 30 Aug

EGERSUND

DDLLWD1–1 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 0–5 · 3–1 · 0–0

SOGNDAL

LLDLLL2–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	26	+38	59
2	Stromsgodset	26	+38	57
3	Kongsvinger	26	+35	56
4	Stabaek	26	+29	49
5	ODD Ballklubb	26	+14	45
6	Bryne	26	+1	39
7	hodd	26	−10	35
8	Egersund	26	−11	33
9	Ranheim	26	−1	32
10	Strommen	26	−12	30
11	Moss	26	−15	29
12	Lyn	26	−17	28
13	Sandnes ULF	26	−13	26
14	Sogndal	25	−17	23
15	Asane	26	−23	23
16	Raufoss	25	−36	20