Egersund v hodd prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Egersund 3–1 hodd EGERSUND WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Egersund win~~50%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.370

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.287

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Egersund win at 50%.
0′Much as we predicted: Egersund was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–22–27
0′KICK-OFF Egersund v hodd
1′Much as we predicted: Egersund was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–22–27
30′⚽ GOAL · 31' Egersund 0–0 hodd
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Egersund 1–0 hodd
34′⚽ GOAL · 35' Egersund 1–0 hodd
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Egersund 2–0 hodd · N. Tornvig
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' hodd
45′SECOND HALF Egersund 2–0 hodd
47′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Egersund
48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' hodd
50′🟨 YELLOW · 51' hodd
51′🟥 RED CARD · 51' hodd
51′🟥 RED CARD · 52' hodd
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' hodd · On: M. Mikhail · Off: M. Scarcella
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Egersund · On: P. Hovland · Off: S. R. Michalsen
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Egersund · On: H. Tadesse · Off: J. Ekeland
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Egersund · On: H. Hardarson · Off: H. Kleppa
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Egersund 2–1 hodd · N. Tornvig
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Egersund · On: H. Tadesse · Off: J. Ekeland
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Egersund · On: H. Hardarson · Off: H. Kleppa
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Egersund 2–1 hodd · V. H. Elveseter
81′⚽ GOAL · 82' Egersund 2–1 hodd
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Egersund 3–1 hodd · V. H. Elveseter
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' hodd · On: H. Urnes · Off: T. Kallevag
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' hodd · On: J. Berisha · Off: V. H. Elveseter
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' hodd · On: M. Rawufu · Off: C. Streete
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Egersund · On: O. Toft Noreng · Off: N. Tornvig
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Egersund · On: B. Baxter · Off: J. Gregersen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' hodd · On: H. Urnes · Off: T. Kallevag
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' hodd · On: J. Berisha · Off: V. H. Elveseter
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' hodd · On: M. Rawufu · Off: C. Streete
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Egersund · On: O. Toft Noreng · Off: N. Tornvig
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Egersund · On: B. Baxter · Off: J. Gregersen
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' hodd · On: G. Andresen · Off: S. Hanssen
FTFULL TIME Egersund 3–1 hodd
FTEgersund 3–1 hodd · Egersund win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Egersund win50%

Draw23%

hodd win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueXL-BYGG Sorvest Arena

RefereeE. Wisted-Thu

Line-ups

Egersund

hodd

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Egersund

hodd

9Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	hodd	24	−8	34
9	Egersund	24	−13	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Egersund

Formation not confirmed

12 M. Eriksen

2 H. Kleppa

31 I. Jonsson

3 B. Maeland

21 K. Eggen

8 C. Sleveland

25 J. Gregersen

16 J. Ekeland

27 S. Vatne

10 S. R. Michalsen

7 N. Tornvig

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Zapytowski

18 · P. Hovland

19 · R. Gyamfi

20 · J. Jorgensen

22 · H. Tadesse

23 · O. Toft Noreng

24 · M. Sylla

26 · B. Baxter

28 · H. Hardarson

hodd

Formation not confirmed

25 O. Buur

5 M. Mulac

3 S. Hanssen

2 C. Ondo

24 J. Robertsen

7 M. Scarcella

8 T. Kallevag

16 M. Kaarsbo

19 S. Mikkelsen

9 C. Streete

29 V. H. Elveseter

Coach · Ivan Poulsen

Substitutes

1 · T. Kinn

6 · H. Urnes

11 · M. Rawufu

14 · M. Mikhail

20 · J. Berisha

27 · G. Andresen

Our number · egersund winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

50% The market56%

Us50%

~~Market~~56%

We make Egersund a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · egersund win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Egersund win	50%	56%	−6
Draw	23%	22%	+1
hodd win	27%	22%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	64%	66%	−2
Both teams to score	63%	64%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	42%	46%	−4
Egersund or draw	73%	78%	−5
Egersund clean sheet	26%	–	–
hodd clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.4 4.6 3.5 1 6.8 10.2 6.5 3.0 2 7.0 9.2 6.2 2.8 3 4.5 5.9 4.0 4 2.2 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Egersund down, hodd across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,412 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 191 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Egersund at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). hodd away: 2.00 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Egersund, 1.36 for hodd. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~HOD 3–1 EGE · EGE 0–0 HOD · HOD 1–0 EGE

Form · last six in 1. Division

EGERSUND

LDDDLL0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 0–5

HODD

LWDLLL1–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	24	+35	55
2	Kongsvinger	24	+35	53
3	Stromsgodset	24	+30	51
4	Stabaek	24	+26	45
5	ODD Ballklubb	24	+12	39
6	Bryne	24	+2	38
7	hodd	24	−8	34
8	Ranheim	24	+3	31
9	Egersund	24	−13	29
10	Lyn	24	−10	28
11	Strommen	24	−17	26
12	Sandnes ULF	24	−10	25
13	Moss	24	−16	25
14	Sogndal	23	−15	23
15	Asane	24	−19	20
16	Raufoss	23	−35	19