Bryne v Egersund prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

BryneDrawEgersund

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bryne 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bryne are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bryne 47%, draw 26%, Egersund 27%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Bryne v EgersundBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Bryne win47%

Draw26%

Egersund win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 28

VenueBryne Stadion

RefereeJ. W. Grundt

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bryne

Egersund

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Bryne	27	−1	39
9	Egersund	27	−11	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bryne winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

47% The market54%

Us47%

~~Market~~54%

We make Bryne a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bryne v Egersund~~1.62 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 39 v 34~~6 v 9

~~The market · Bryne win~~54% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bryne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bryne win	47%	54%	−7
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Egersund win	27%	22%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	52%	61%	−9
Both teams to score	55%	62%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	77%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	31%	41%	−10
Bryne or draw	73%	78%	−5
Bryne clean sheet	31%	–	–
Egersund clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.0 6.7 4.3 1 9.4 12.1 6.7 2.7 2 8.0 9.2 5.4 2.1 3 4.3 5.0 2.9 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bryne down, Egersund across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,437 1. Division matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.3% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bryne at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Egersund away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Bryne, 1.17 for Egersund. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~EGE 1–0 BRY · BRY 2–1 EGE · EGE 0–2 BRY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 12 Sept

BRYNE

WWWLDL2–0 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–4

EGERSUND

DLLWDD1–1 · 1–5 · 0–5 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stromsgodset	27	+43	60
2	Kongsvinger	27	+39	59
3	Haugesund	27	+33	59
4	Stabaek	27	+30	52
5	ODD Ballklubb	27	+13	45
6	Bryne	27	−1	39
7	Ranheim	28	+3	38
8	hodd	27	−6	38
9	Egersund	27	−11	34
10	Strommen	27	−11	33
11	Lyn	27	−16	31
12	Moss	27	−16	29
13	Sogndal	27	−16	27
14	Sandnes ULF	27	−17	26
15	Asane	27	−24	23
16	Raufoss	28	−43	20