Asane v Stabaek prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Asane 0–1 Stabaek STABAEK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Stabaek win~~53%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.332

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.154

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Stabaek win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Stabaek 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 26–21–53
1′KICK-OFF Asane v Stabaek
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Stabaek
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Stabaek
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Stabaek win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
45′HALF-TIME Asane 0–0 Stabaek
46′SECOND HALF Asane 0–0 Stabaek
51′We said Stabaek at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 24–35–41
51′We said Stabaek at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 6–17–76
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Asane 0–1 Stabaek
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Stabaek win: 53% at kick-off, 76% now
52′Stabaek score on 52′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–17–76
58′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Asane · On: K. Haga · Off: E. Iversen
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Stabaek · On: G. Rapp · Off: A. Aamodt
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Asane · On: S. Nygard · Off: B. Baldursson
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Asane · On: S. Haga · Off: H. Geelmuyden Corrected
66′We said Stabaek at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
66′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Stabaek · On: F. Krogstad · Off: D. Santos
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Stabaek win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Stabaek · On: O. Solnordal · Off: A. Matic
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Asane
76′We said Stabaek at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
76′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Stabaek · On: S. Olderheim · Off: M. Dahlby
82′We said Stabaek at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Stabaek win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Stabaek
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Stabaek · On: A. Hoven · Off: F. Riise
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Asane · On: L. Rossi · Off: E. Myklebust
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Asane · On: S. Haga · Off: D. Wolfe
90′We said Stabaek at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–1 · 0–4–96
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Asane
95′0–1 at the end. Our 53% on Stabaek comes in. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Asane 0–1 Stabaek
FTAsane 0–1 Stabaek · Stabaek win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stabaek are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Asane 26%, draw 21%, Stabaek 53%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Asane v StabaekBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Asane win26%

Draw21%

Stabaek win53%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueAsane Arena

RefereeA. Al Hatem

Line-ups

Asane

Stabaek

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Asane

Stabaek

4Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · the Norwegian 1. Division

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Stabaek	26	+29	49
15	Asane	26	−23	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Asane

Formation not confirmed

24 M. Klausen

4 H. Diaby

10 K. Barmen

5 E. Iversen

22 D. Wolfe

18 B. Baldursson

8 J. Eikrem

7 H. Geelmuyden

15 F. Oprea

30 E. Myklebust

26 M. Fismen

Coach · Thomas Lyngbo

Substitutes

6 · S. Brudvik

11 · L. Rossi

12 · I. Reset-Kalland

14 · M. Haga

17 · T. L. Furebotn

20 · S. Nygard

23 · G. Ramsay

45 · S. Haga

77 · K. Haga

Stabaek

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Ulla

2 F. Riise

4 N. Naess

14 E. Lereng

29 K. Ekorness

28 D. Santos

6 A. Matic

23 W. Wendt

33 A. Aamodt

8 M. Dahlby

9 A. Sanyang

Coach · Andre Kjell

Substitutes

5 · J. Skjelvik

7 · O. Solnordal

10 · S. Olderheim

12 · L. Gunnerod

15 · O. Veum

16 · A. Hoven

20 · G. Rapp

21 · F. Krogstad

Our number · stabaek winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:53 · locked at kick-off

53% The market68%

Us53%

~~Market~~68%

We make Stabaek a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Asane v Stabaek~~1.49 – 2.20

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 49~~15 v 4

~~The market · Stabaek win~~68% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stabaek win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Asane win	26%	14%	+12
Draw	21%	18%	+3
Stabaek win	53%	68%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	71%	74%	−3
Both teams to score	69%	66%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	89%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	50%	56%	−6
Asane or draw	47%	32%	+15
Asane clean sheet	12%	–	–
Stabaek clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.8%

0123450 3.2 5.1 6.0 4.4 2.5 1 3.3 8.7 8.8 6.4 3.6 2 2.9 6.1 6.5 4.7 2.6 3 3.0 3.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Asane down, Stabaek across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,428 1. Division matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.0% of games this season, across 207 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.14 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Asane at home: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Stabaek away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Asane, 2.20 for Stabaek. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.14

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~STA 4–0 ASA · STA 2–0 ASA · ASA 1–1 STA · STA 1–1 ASA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

ASANE

DDLLWL2–2 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–6

STABAEK

LLWLDW2–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	26	+38	59
2	Stromsgodset	26	+38	57
3	Kongsvinger	26	+35	56
4	Stabaek	26	+29	49
5	ODD Ballklubb	26	+14	45
6	Bryne	26	+1	39
7	hodd	26	−10	35
8	Egersund	26	−11	33
9	Ranheim	26	−1	32
10	Strommen	26	−12	30
11	Moss	26	−15	29
12	Lyn	26	−17	28
13	Sandnes ULF	26	−13	26
14	Sogndal	25	−17	23
15	Asane	26	−23	23
16	Raufoss	25	−36	20