Asane v Sogndal prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Asane 2–1 Sogndal ASANE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Asane win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.550

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.603

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Asane win at 40%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Asane 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–23–37
0′KICK-OFF Asane v Sogndal
1′Little has changed for our model: Asane 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–23–37
7′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Sogndal
45′SECOND HALF Asane 0–0 Sogndal
46′SECOND HALF Asane 0–0 Sogndal
47′SECOND HALF Asane 0–0 Sogndal
48′SECOND HALF Asane 0–0 Sogndal
49′SECOND HALF Asane 0–0 Sogndal
50′SECOND HALF Asane 0–0 Sogndal
51′SECOND HALF Asane 0–0 Sogndal
52′SECOND HALF Asane 0–0 Sogndal
53′SECOND HALF Asane 0–0 Sogndal
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Sogndal
58′⚽ GOAL · 59' Asane 1–0 Sogndal
60′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Asane
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sogndal · On: O. Helen · Off: L. Vapne
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sogndal · On: E. Flo · Off: L. Gausdal
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sogndal · On: E. Flo · Off: L. Gausdal
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Asane · On: F. Oprea · Off: K. Haga
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Asane · On: M. Haga · Off: J. Eikrem
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Asane · On: H. Geelmuyden · Off: M. Fismen
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Asane 1–1 Sogndal · E. Myklebust
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Asane 1–1 Sogndal · E. Myklebust
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Asane · On: H. Geelmuyden · Off: M. Fismen
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Asane 1–1 Sogndal
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sogndal · On: P. Asp · Off: K. Arierhi
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Asane 1–1 Sogndal
88′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Sogndal
94′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Asane · On: L. Rossi · Off: D. Wolfe
94′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Asane · On: M. Haga · Off: E. Myklebust Corrected
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Asane 2–1 Sogndal · E. Hovland
94′⚽ GOAL · 95' Asane 2–1 Sogndal
FTFULL TIME Asane 2–1 Sogndal
FTAsane 2–1 Sogndal · Asane win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Asane win40%

Draw24%

Sogndal win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueAsane Arena

RefereeJ. W. Grundt

Line-ups

Asane

Sogndal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Asane

Sogndal

8Days since last match21

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Sogndal	23	−15	23
15	Asane	24	−19	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Asane

Formation not confirmed

24 M. Klausen

4 H. Diaby

10 K. Barmen

6 S. Brudvik

22 D. Wolfe

8 J. Eikrem

20 S. Nygard

77 K. Haga

17 T. L. Furebotn

30 E. Myklebust

26 M. Fismen

Coach · Thomas Lyngbo

Substitutes

5 · E. Iversen

7 · H. Geelmuyden

11 · L. Rossi

12 · I. Reset-Kalland

14 · M. Haga

15 · F. Oprea

18 · B. Baldursson

23 · G. Ramsay

45 · S. Haga

Sogndal

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Jendal

4 E. Hovland

14 J. Haruna

35 E. L. Hillestad

88 R. Onyango

8 L. Gausdal

16 L. Vapne

7 H. Woxen

10 K. Skaanes

19 T. Pippola

9 K. Arierhi

Coach · Eirik Bakke

Substitutes

3 · F. Flo

5 · K. Harrison

11 · E. Mensah

15 · O. Helen

18 · V. Hagen

20 · P. Asp

24 · K. Bieszczad

32 · M. Oren

39 · E. Flo

Our number · asane winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make Asane a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · asane win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Asane win	40%	37%	+3
Draw	24%	24%	−1
Sogndal win	37%	38%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	65%	69%	−4
Both teams to score	66%	71%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	85%	86%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	44%	50%	−6
Asane or draw	63%	62%	+2
Asane clean sheet	20%	–	–
Sogndal clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.1 5.2 4.7 2.6 1 5.5 10.1 7.8 4.3 2 5.1 8.2 6.7 3.7 3 3.0 4.8 3.9 2.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Asane down, Sogndal across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,412 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.2% of games this season, across 191 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.64 goals a meeting; 3 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Asane at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sogndal away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Asane, 1.65 for Sogndal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.64

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 11

~~Both scored~~7 of 11

~~Last meetings~~SOG 2–0 ASA · ASA 1–1 SOG · SOG 2–0 ASA · SOG 0–2 ASA

Form · last six in 1. Division

ASANE

LDDDLL1–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 0–1

SOGNDAL

WDLLDL2–0 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Haugesund	24	+35	55
2	Kongsvinger	24	+35	53
3	Stromsgodset	24	+30	51
4	Stabaek	24	+26	45
5	ODD Ballklubb	24	+12	39
6	Bryne	24	+2	38
7	hodd	24	−8	34
8	Ranheim	24	+3	31
9	Egersund	24	−13	29
10	Lyn	24	−10	28
11	Strommen	24	−17	26
12	Sandnes ULF	24	−10	25
13	Moss	24	−16	25
14	Sogndal	23	−15	23
15	Asane	24	−19	20
16	Raufoss	23	−35	19