Start W v Fyllingsdalen W prediction · 1. Division Women

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Start W 4–0 Fyllingsdalen W START W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Start W win~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.097

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Start W win at 75%.
1′Much as we predicted: Start W was 75% before kick-off and our model makes it 74% now. 0–0 · 74–14–12
1′KICK-OFF Start W v Fyllingsdalen W
30′A goal for Start W on 30′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–3
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Start W 1–0 Fyllingsdalen W
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Start W win: 75% at kick-off, 87% now
31′We published Start W at 75%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–3
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–3
43′Start W score on 43′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Start W 2–0 Fyllingsdalen W
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Start W win: 75% at kick-off, 97% now
44′We published Start W at 75%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
45′HALF-TIME Start W 2–0 Fyllingsdalen W
46′SECOND HALF Start W 2–0 Fyllingsdalen W
56′A red card for Fyllingsdalen W on 55′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 98–2–0
56′🟥 RED CARD · 55' Fyllingsdalen W
71′PENALTY MISSED · 70' Fyllingsdalen W
75′Start W find the net on 75′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Start W 3–0 Fyllingsdalen W
76′We published Start W at 75%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
91′A goal for Start W on 90′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
91′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Start W 4–0 Fyllingsdalen W
FTFULL TIME Start W 4–0 Fyllingsdalen W
FTStart W 4–0 Fyllingsdalen W · Start W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Start W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Start W 75%, draw 14%, Fyllingsdalen W 12%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Start W v Fyllingsdalen WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Start W win75%

Draw14%

Fyllingsdalen W win12%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 22

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Start W

Fyllingsdalen W

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division Women

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Division Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · start w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

75% The market–

Us75%

We make Start W a 75% chance to win. The model expects 2.7–0.9, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Start W v Fyllingsdalen W~~2.72 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 30 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 3~~1 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Start W win

Published at 76%, 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Start W win	75%	–	–
Draw	14%	–	–
Fyllingsdalen W win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	69%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	48%	–	–
Start W or draw	88%	–	–
Start W clean sheet	41%	–	–
Fyllingsdalen W clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.7%

0123450 2.4 3.4 1 8.3 6.1 3.1 2 9.7 8.6 3.9 3 8.5 7.4 3.4 4 5.8 5.0 2.3 5 3.3 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Start W down, Fyllingsdalen W across0–5 goals a side shown (92.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 614 1. Division Women matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Start W at home: 3.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Fyllingsdalen W away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.72 goals for Start W, 0.91 for Fyllingsdalen W. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~FYL 1–3 STA · STA 1–1 FYL · FYL 1–0 STA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 30 Aug

START W

WWWDWW3–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 6–0

FYLLINGSDALEN W

WWLLWW4–2 · 4–2 · 0–6 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Start W	8	+9	20
2	Viking FK W	8	+18	19
3	Åsane W	8	+11	18
4	TIL 2020 W	8	+14	17
5	Arna-Bjørnar W	8	+4	14
6	Bryne W	8	−2	11
7	Odd W	8	−1	9
8	Kolbotn W	8	−1	8
9	Grei W	8	−2	7
10	Klepp W	8	−15	6
11	Frigg Oslo FK W	8	−17	3
12	Fyllingsdalen W	8	−18	3