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Kolbotn W v Åsane W

Kolbotn W
3–4Full time
Åsane W

1. Division Women · WED 21 OCT

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 16:31
Kolbotn W 3–4 Åsane W ÅSANE W WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Åsane W win57%
The market said78%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.282
The market’s Brier score0.076

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Åsane W win at 57%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Kolbotn W v Åsane W
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Åsane W 57% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 22–22–56
  4. 10′A goal for Kolbotn W on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 46–26–28
  5. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Kolbotn W 1–0 Åsane W
  6. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Åsane W win: 57% at kick-off, 28% now
  7. 10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Kolbotn W win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Åsane W win 54%)
  8. 11′We said Åsane W at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–0 · 46–26–28
  9. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Åsane W win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
  10. 21′We said Åsane W at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 49–27–24
  11. 28′Kolbotn W score on 27′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 78–14–8
  12. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Kolbotn W 2–0 Åsane W
  13. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Åsane W win: 57% at kick-off, 8% now
  14. 29′We said Åsane W at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 2–0 · 79–14–7
  15. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Åsane W win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
  16. 32′Åsane W find the net on 32′. 2–1. 2–1 · 52–28–20
  17. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Kolbotn W 2–1 Åsane W
  18. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Åsane W win: 57% at kick-off, 20% now
  19. 33′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 52–28–20
  20. 35′We said Åsane W at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 53–28–19
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Kolbotn W 2–1 Åsane W
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Kolbotn W 2–1 Åsane W
  23. 47′We said Åsane W at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 58–28–14
  24. 58′A goal for Kolbotn W on 58′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 90–8–2
  25. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Kolbotn W 3–1 Åsane W
  26. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Åsane W win: 57% at kick-off, 2% now
  27. 59′We said Åsane W at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 3–1 · 91–7–2
  28. 60′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 91–7–2
  29. 73′Åsane W score on 72′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 76–20–4
  30. 73′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 76–20–4
  31. 73′⚽ GOAL · 72' Kolbotn W 3–2 Åsane W
  32. 84′73′: C. Osnes-Ringen on the scoresheet for Åsane W, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 90–10–1
  33. 90′Åsane W find the net on 90′. 3–3. 3–3 · 3–92–5
  34. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Kolbotn W 3–3 Åsane W
  35. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Kolbotn W win 95%)
  36. 91′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 2–93–5
  37. 96′A goal for Åsane W on 90′ — 3–4. 3–4 · 0–1–99
  38. 96′We said Åsane W at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–4 · 0–1–99
  39. 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Kolbotn W 3–4 Åsane W
  40. 96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+6' Åsane W win: 57% at kick-off, 99% now
  41. 96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Åsane W win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 97%)
  42. FTFULL TIME Kolbotn W 3–4 Åsane W
  43. FTKolbotn W 3–4 Åsane W · Åsane W win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Åsane W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kolbotn W 22%, draw 22%, Åsane W 57%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Kolbotn W v Åsane WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Kolbotn W win22%
Draw22%
Åsane W win57%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 18

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kolbotn W

Åsane W

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Division Women

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Division Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Åsane W8+1118
8Kolbotn W8−18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · åsane w winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off
57% The market78%
Us57%
Market78%

We make Åsane W a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 21 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kolbotn W v Åsane W0.92 – 1.71
Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 30 AugW2 D1 L3 · W3 D3 L0
Table places · points 8 v 188 v 3
The market · Åsane W win78% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%60%70%80% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 13:40
Our probability · Åsane W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 57% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kolbotn W win22%8%+14
Draw22%14%+8
Åsane W win57%78%−21
Over 2.5 goals48%65%−17
Both teams to score47%45%+2
Over 1.5 goals72%82%−10
Over 3.5 goals27%45%−18
Kolbotn W or draw43%22%+21
Kolbotn W clean sheet19%––
Åsane W clean sheet41%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%
0123450 6.6 13.6 10.4 6.0 2.7 1 7.9 9.9 9.1 5.2 2.3 2 3.2 5.1 4.2 2.4 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kolbotn W down, Åsane W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsASA 2–1 KOL · KOL 0–2 ASA · KOL 1–0 ASA · ASA 1–1 KOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 30 Aug

KOLBOTN W

LDWLWL1–3 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–3

ÅSANE W

DWDDWW1–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 5–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Start W8+920
2Viking FK W8+1819
3Åsane W8+1118
4TIL 2020 W8+1417
5Arna-Bjørnar W8+414
6Bryne W8−211
7Odd W8−19
8Kolbotn W8−18
9Grei W8−27
10Klepp W8−156
11Frigg Oslo FK W8−173
12Fyllingsdalen W8−183

The competition's standings before kick-off.