Kolbotn W v Arna-Bjørnar W prediction · 1. Division Women

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Kolbotn W 1–4 Arna-Bjørnar W ARNA-BJØRNAR W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arna-Bjørnar W win~~68%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.151

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.140

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arna-Bjørnar W win at 68%.
1′Much as we predicted: Arna-Bjørnar W was 68% before kick-off and our model makes it 68% now. 0–0 · 17–15–68
1′KICK-OFF Kolbotn W v Arna-Bjørnar W
13′Arna-Bjørnar W score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–11–82
13′We published Arna-Bjørnar W at 68%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 7–11–82
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Kolbotn W 0–1 Arna-Bjørnar W
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 68% at kick-off, 82% now
14′13′: A. Evensen on the scoresheet for Arna-Bjørnar W, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–11–82
45′HALF-TIME Kolbotn W 0–1 Arna-Bjørnar W
46′SECOND HALF Kolbotn W 0–1 Arna-Bjørnar W
65′Arna-Bjørnar W find the net on 65′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
65′We published Arna-Bjørnar W at 68%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 0–2–97
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Kolbotn W 0–2 Arna-Bjørnar W
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 68% at kick-off, 97% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
77′A goal for Kolbotn W on 77′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Kolbotn W 1–2 Arna-Bjørnar W
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 68% at kick-off, 88% now
78′We published Arna-Bjørnar W at 68%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–2 · 1–10–88
80′We published Arna-Bjørnar W at 68%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
85′Arna-Bjørnar W score on 85′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
85′We published Arna-Bjørnar W at 68%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Kolbotn W 1–3 Arna-Bjørnar W
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 68% at kick-off, over 99% now
86′Goals are coming at about the 4.2 we expected. 1–3 · 0–0–100
93′Arna-Bjørnar W find the net on 90′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
93′That is 5, and we only asked for 4.2 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Kolbotn W 1–4 Arna-Bjørnar W
FTFULL TIME Kolbotn W 1–4 Arna-Bjørnar W
FTKolbotn W 1–4 Arna-Bjørnar W · Arna-Bjørnar W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arna-Bjørnar W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kolbotn W 17%, draw 15%, Arna-Bjørnar W 68%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Kolbotn W v Arna-Bjørnar WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kolbotn W win17%

Draw15%

Arna-Bjørnar W win68%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 22

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kolbotn W

Arna-Bjørnar W

3Days since last match7

Last match: 21 Oct · 1. Division Women

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division Women

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Arna-Bjørnar W	8	+4	14
8	Kolbotn W	8	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arna-bjørnar w winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

68% The market69%

Us68%

~~Market~~69%

We make Arna-Bjørnar W a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–2.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kolbotn W v Arna-Bjørnar W~~1.33 – 2.88

~~Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 14~~8 v 5

~~The market · Arna-Bjørnar W win~~69% · ours 68%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arna-Bjørnar W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 68% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kolbotn W win	17%	13%	+4
Draw	15%	17%	−2
Arna-Bjørnar W win	68%	69%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	78%	74%	+4
Both teams to score	67%	63%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	91%	88%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	59%	56%	+3
Kolbotn W or draw	32%	31%	+1
Kolbotn W clean sheet	7%	–	–
Arna-Bjørnar W clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.9%

0123450 5.2 6.2 5.6 4.0 2.51 3.0 5.4 7.9 7.2 5.1 3.02 4.0 5.2 4.7 3.3 3 2.4 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kolbotn W down, Arna-Bjørnar W across0–5 goals a side shown (90.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 614 1. Division Women matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kolbotn W at home: 1.83 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Arna-Bjørnar W away: 3.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Kolbotn W, 2.88 for Arna-Bjørnar W. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ARN 1–1 KOL · ARN 1–2 KOL · ARN 0–2 KOL · KOL 4–1 ARN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 30 Aug

KOLBOTN W

DWLWLL2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 3–4

ARNA-BJØRNAR W

WLWWWD2–0 · 2–4 · 3–2 · 5–0 · 10–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Start W	8	+9	20
2	Viking FK W	8	+18	19
3	Åsane W	8	+11	18
4	TIL 2020 W	8	+14	17
5	Arna-Bjørnar W	8	+4	14
6	Bryne W	8	−2	11
7	Odd W	8	−1	9
8	Kolbotn W	8	−1	8
9	Grei W	8	−2	7
10	Klepp W	8	−15	6
11	Frigg Oslo FK W	8	−17	3
12	Fyllingsdalen W	8	−18	3