Klepp W v Åsane W prediction · 1. Division Women

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:02

Klepp W 1–5 Åsane W ÅSANE W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Åsane W win~~82%

~~The market said~~93%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.050

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.008

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Åsane W win at 82%.
2′Much as we predicted: Åsane W was 82% before kick-off and our model makes it 81% now. 0–0 · 8–11–81
2′KICK-OFF Klepp W v Åsane W
4′GOAL DISALLOWED · 4' Åsane W
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 4' Åsane W win: 82% at kick-off, 81% now
5′Åsane W find the net on 5′. 0–1. 0–1 · 2–6–92
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Klepp W 0–1 Åsane W
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Åsane W win: 82% at kick-off, 92% now
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Klepp W 0–1 Åsane W · H. Stuedahl-Karlsen
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Åsane W win: 82% at kick-off, 92% now
25′A goal for Åsane W on 25′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
25′We published Åsane W at 82%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Klepp W 0–2 Åsane W
38′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
42′Åsane W score on 42′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Klepp W 0–3 Åsane W
43′We published Åsane W at 82%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
45′HALF-TIME Klepp W 0–4 Åsane W
46′Åsane W find the net on 45′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
46′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Klepp W 0–4 Åsane W
46′SECOND HALF Klepp W 0–4 Åsane W
79′A goal for Klepp W on 79′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
79′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Klepp W 1–4 Åsane W
81′H. Kogstad scores for Klepp W on 77′ — 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
94′Åsane W score on 90′ to make it 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
94′6 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Klepp W 1–5 Åsane W
FTFULL TIME Klepp W 1–5 Åsane W
FTKlepp W 1–5 Åsane W · Åsane W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Åsane W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Klepp W 8%, draw 11%, Åsane W 82%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Klepp W v Åsane WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Klepp W win8%

Draw11%

Åsane W win82%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Klepp W

Åsane W

14Days since last match15

Last match: 4 Oct · 1. Division Women

Last match: 3 Oct · 1. Division Women

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Åsane W	8	+11	18
10	Klepp W	8	−15	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · åsane w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off

82% The market93%

Us82%

~~Market~~93%

We make Åsane W an 82% chance to win. The market has them at 93%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–3.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Klepp W v Åsane W~~0.74 – 3.05

~~Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D0 L6 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 18~~10 v 3

~~The market · Åsane W win~~93% · ours 82%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Åsane W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 81%, 82% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 93% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Klepp W win	8%	2%	+6
Draw	11%	5%	+6
Åsane W win	82%	93%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	72%	81%	−9
Both teams to score	48%	25%	+23
Over 1.5 goals	88%	92%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	52%	67%	−15
Klepp W or draw	18%	7%	+11
Klepp W clean sheet	6%	–	–
Åsane W clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.4%

0123450 2.0 7.8 10.4 10.2 7.8 5.01 2.5 4.8 7.5 7.3 5.4 3.32 2.1 2.9 2.8 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Klepp W down, Åsane W across0–5 goals a side shown (89.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 610 1. Division Women matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.6% of games this season, across 122 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Klepp W at home: 1.50 scored, 4.67 conceded a game (last 6). Åsane W away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.74 goals for Klepp W, 3.05 for Åsane W. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ASA 7–0 KLE · KLE 0–3 ASA · ASA 1–0 KLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 30 Aug

KLEPP W

LLLLLL0–4 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 0–4 · 2–6 · 0–2

ÅSANE W

LDWDDW0–2 · 1–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Start W	8	+9	20
2	Viking FK W	8	+18	19
3	Åsane W	8	+11	18
4	TIL 2020 W	8	+14	17
5	Arna-Bjørnar W	8	+4	14
6	Bryne W	8	−2	11
7	Odd W	8	−1	9
8	Kolbotn W	8	−1	8
9	Grei W	8	−2	7
10	Klepp W	8	−15	6
11	Frigg Oslo FK W	8	−17	3
12	Fyllingsdalen W	8	−18	3