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Grei W v Frigg Oslo FK W

Grei W
5–2Full time
Frigg Oslo FK W

1. Division Women · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
Grei W 5–2 Frigg Oslo FK W GREI W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Grei W win65%
The market said71%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.183
The market’s Brier score0.128

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Grei W win at 65%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Grei W 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–16–19
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Grei W v Frigg Oslo FK W
  4. 4′A goal for Grei W on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–12–7
  5. 4′We said Grei W at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–12–7
  6. 4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Grei W 1–0 Frigg Oslo FK W
  7. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Grei W win: 65% at kick-off, 81% now
  8. 18′T. E. Flokketveit scores for Grei W on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 81–12–7
  9. 28′Frigg Oslo FK W score on 27′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 58–23–19
  10. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Grei W 1–1 Frigg Oslo FK W
  11. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Grei W win: 65% at kick-off, 58% now
  12. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Grei W win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
  13. 39′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–1 · 54–27–19
  14. 41′We said Grei W at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 1–1 · 53–28–19
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Grei W 1–1 Frigg Oslo FK W
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Grei W 1–1 Frigg Oslo FK W
  17. 50′We said Grei W at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–32–18
  18. 55′Grei W find the net on 55′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–14–4
  19. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Grei W 2–1 Frigg Oslo FK W
  20. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Grei W win: 65% at kick-off, 82% now
  21. 57′A goal for Grei W on 57′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 96–3–1
  22. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Grei W 3–1 Frigg Oslo FK W
  23. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Grei W win: 65% at kick-off, 96% now
  24. 58′We said Grei W at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–1
  25. 58′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–1
  26. 61′Frigg Oslo FK W score on 60′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 83–14–3
  27. 61′5 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 83–14–3
  28. 61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Grei W 3–2 Frigg Oslo FK W
  29. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Grei W win: 65% at kick-off, 83% now
  30. 65′61′: N. Bakke on the scoresheet for Frigg Oslo FK W, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 84–14–3
  31. 66′Grei W find the net on 66′. 4–2. 4–2 · 98–2–0
  32. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Grei W 4–2 Frigg Oslo FK W
  33. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Grei W win: 65% at kick-off, 98% now
  34. 67′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 98–2–0
  35. 72′Grei W ahead on 67′ through C. Despina Larsen Tsikalaki. 4–2. 4–2 · 98–2–0
  36. 82′We said Grei W at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  37. 89′A goal for Grei W on 89′ — 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  38. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Grei W 5–2 Frigg Oslo FK W
  39. 90′7 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  40. FTFULL TIME Grei W 5–2 Frigg Oslo FK W
  41. FTGrei W 5–2 Frigg Oslo FK W · Grei W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Grei W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Grei W 65%, draw 16%, Frigg Oslo FK W 19%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Grei W v Frigg Oslo FK WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Grei W win65%
Draw16%
Frigg Oslo FK W win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Grei W

Frigg Oslo FK W

15Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · 1. Division Women

Last match: 4 Oct · 1. Division Women

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Grei W8−27
11Frigg Oslo FK W8−173

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · grei w winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off
65% The market71%
Us65%
Market71%

We make Grei W a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Grei W v Frigg Oslo FK W2.51 – 1.23
Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 23 AugW3 D1 L2 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 7 v 39 v 11
The market · Grei W win71% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70%75%80% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 12:46
Our probability · Grei W win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Grei W win65%71%−6
Draw16%17%−1
Frigg Oslo FK W win19%12%+7
Over 2.5 goals71%71%0
Both teams to score63%58%+5
Over 1.5 goals87%87%0
Over 3.5 goals51%51%0
Grei W or draw81%88%−7
Grei W clean sheet30%––
Frigg Oslo FK W clean sheet9%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.8%
0123450 4.0 1 7.0 6.7 4.5 2 7.5 8.8 5.4 2.3 3 6.1 7.2 4.4 4 3.9 4.6 2.8 5 2.0 2.4
under 2% 5% 12%+Grei W down, Frigg Oslo FK W across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026
Goals a meeting6.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsFRI 1–5 GRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 23 Aug

GREI W

WLDWWL4–0 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 0–10

FRIGG OSLO FK W

WWLLLL2–1 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 1–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Start W8+920
2Viking FK W8+1819
3Åsane W8+1118
4TIL 2020 W8+1417
5Arna-Bjørnar W8+414
6Bryne W8−211
7Odd W8−19
8Kolbotn W8−18
9Grei W8−27
10Klepp W8−156
11Frigg Oslo FK W8−173
12Fyllingsdalen W8−183

The competition's standings before kick-off.