Bryne W v Start W prediction · 1. Division Women

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Bryne W 0–6 Start W START W WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Start W win~~53%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.334

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.161

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Start W win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Start W 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 26–22–53
1′KICK-OFF Bryne W v Start W
11′A goal for Start W on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–17–75
11′We said Start W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 9–17–75
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Bryne W 0–1 Start W
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Start W win: 53% at kick-off, 75% now
21′Start W score on 21′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Bryne W 0–2 Start W
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Start W win: 53% at kick-off, 92% now
22′We said Start W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Start W win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
33′Start W find the net on 33′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
33′We said Start W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
33′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–99
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Bryne W 0–3 Start W
35′A goal for Start W on 35′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Bryne W 0–4 Start W
36′We said Start W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
36′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
45′HALF-TIME Bryne W 0–4 Start W
46′SECOND HALF Bryne W 0–4 Start W
50′I. Andresen scores for Start W on 35′ — 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
50′Start W score on 50′ to make it 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Bryne W 0–5 Start W
51′We said Start W at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–5 · 0–0–100
51′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
58′Start W find the net on 58′. 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Bryne W 0–6 Start W
59′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–6 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Bryne W 0–6 Start W
FTBryne W 0–6 Start W · Start W win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Start W are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bryne W 26%, draw 21%, Start W 53%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Bryne W v Start WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bryne W win26%

Draw21%

Start W win53%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bryne W

Start W

14Days since last match13

Last match: 3 Oct · 1. Division Women

Last match: 4 Oct · 1. Division Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · start w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

53% The market67%

Us53%

~~Market~~67%

We make Start W a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bryne W v Start W~~1.08 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 11 v 20~~6 v 1

~~The market · Start W win~~67% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Start W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bryne W win	26%	13%	+13
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Start W win	53%	67%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	52%	64%	−12
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	75%	82%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	30%	43%	−13
Bryne W or draw	47%	33%	+14
Bryne W clean sheet	19%	–	–
Start W clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.0%

0123450 5.3 12.0 8.9 5.1 2.3 1 8.2 9.9 9.2 5.2 2.3 2 3.7 6.0 5.0 2.8 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bryne W down, Start W across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 607 1. Division Women matches up to 4 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division Women matches have gone over 2.5 in 65.5% of games this season, across 119 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bryne W at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Start W away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Bryne W, 1.70 for Start W. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~STA 2–0 BRY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 22 Aug

BRYNE W

LWLWWL0–1 · 5–0 · 0–4 · 6–2 · 1–0 · 1–2

START W

WWWWDW5–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Start W	8	+9	20
2	Viking FK W	8	+18	19
3	Åsane W	8	+11	18
4	TIL 2020 W	8	+14	17
5	Arna-Bjørnar W	8	+4	14
6	Bryne W	8	−2	11
7	Odd W	8	−1	9
8	Kolbotn W	8	−1	8
9	Grei W	8	−2	7
10	Klepp W	8	−15	6
11	Frigg Oslo FK W	8	−17	3
12	Fyllingsdalen W	8	−18	3