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Model 1.2

Home › Football › 1. Division Women › Arna-Bjørnar W v Viking FK W

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Arna-Bjørnar W v Viking FK W

Arna-Bjørnar W
2–2Full time
Viking FK W

1. Division Women · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28
Arna-Bjørnar W 2–2 Viking FK W ARNA-BJØRNAR W WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Arna-Bjørnar W win61%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.125
The market’s Brier score0.864

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Arna-Bjørnar W win at 61%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Arna-Bjørnar W 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–16–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Arna-Bjørnar W v Viking FK W
  4. 21′Viking FK W score on 21′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 34–23–43
  5. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Arna-Bjørnar W 0–1 Viking FK W
  6. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 61% at kick-off, 34% now
  7. 21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Viking FK W win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Arna-Bjørnar W win 34%)
  8. 22′We said Arna-Bjørnar W at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–23–44
  9. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 4.2 we expected. 0–1 · 30–24–46
  11. 32′Arna-Bjørnar W find the net on 31′. 1–1. 1–1 · 54–23–23
  12. 32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Arna-Bjørnar W 1–1 Viking FK W
  13. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 61% at kick-off, 54% now
  14. 32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Arna-Bjørnar W win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Viking FK W win 23%)
  15. 41′A goal for Arna-Bjørnar W on 41′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 77–15–7
  16. 41′We said Arna-Bjørnar W at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 2–1 · 77–15–7
  17. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Arna-Bjørnar W 2–1 Viking FK W
  18. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 61% at kick-off, 77% now
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Arna-Bjørnar W 2–1 Viking FK W
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Arna-Bjørnar W 2–1 Viking FK W
  21. 49′L. Garen scores for Arna-Bjørnar W on 41′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 78–16–6
  22. 49′We said Arna-Bjørnar W at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 2–1 · 78–16–6
  23. 56′The goal count is tracking the 4.2 we expected. 2–1 · 79–16–5
  24. 62′We said Arna-Bjørnar W at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
  25. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 61% at kick-off, 81% now
  26. 76′We said Arna-Bjørnar W at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  27. 82′We said Arna-Bjørnar W at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
  28. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
  29. 86′Viking FK W score on 85′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 13–80–7
  30. 86′We said Arna-Bjørnar W at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–80–7
  31. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Arna-Bjørnar W 2–2 Viking FK W
  32. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 61% at kick-off, 13% now
  33. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Arna-Bjørnar W win 13%)
  34. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Arna-Bjørnar W win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
  35. 89′We said Arna-Bjørnar W at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–85–5
  36. 93′We said Arna-Bjørnar W at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–2
  37. FTFULL TIME Arna-Bjørnar W 2–2 Viking FK W
  38. FTArna-Bjørnar W 2–2 Viking FK W · Arna-Bjørnar W win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arna-Bjørnar W are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arna-Bjørnar W 61%, draw 16%, Viking FK W 23%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 71%.

The AI’s read on Arna-Bjørnar W v Viking FK WBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Arna-Bjørnar W win61%
Draw16%
Viking FK W win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 21

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arna-Bjørnar W

Viking FK W

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · 1. Division Women

Last match: 3 Oct · 1. Division Women

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Viking FK W8+1819
5Arna-Bjørnar W8+414

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arna-bjørnar w winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
61% The market45%
Us61%
Market45%

We make Arna-Bjørnar W a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 16 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Arna-Bjørnar W v Viking FK W2.64 – 1.55
Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 23 AugW5 D0 L1 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 14 v 195 v 2
The market · Arna-Bjørnar W win45% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60%65% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 13:28
Our probability · Arna-Bjørnar W win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Arna-Bjørnar W win61%45%+16
Draw16%25%−9
Viking FK W win23%31%−8
Over 2.5 goals78%67%+11
Both teams to score71%67%+4
Over 1.5 goals91%84%+7
Over 3.5 goals59%47%+12
Arna-Bjørnar W or draw77%69%+8
Arna-Bjørnar W clean sheet22%––
Viking FK W clean sheet8%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.9%
0123450 3.4 1 5.0 5.7 4.8 2.5 2 5.4 7.9 6.0 3.1 3 4.6 6.8 5.2 2.7 4 3.0 4.5 3.4 5 2.4
under 2% 5% 12%+Arna-Bjørnar W down, Viking FK W across0–5 goals a side shown (93.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsVIK 0–0 ARN · VIK 1–1 ARN · ARN 1–0 VIK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division Women this season · since 23 Aug

ARNA-BJØRNAR W

WWLWWW3–0 · 2–0 · 2–4 · 3–2 · 5–0 · 10–0

VIKING FK W

WDWWWW1–0 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 6–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Start W8+920
2Viking FK W8+1819
3Åsane W8+1118
4TIL 2020 W8+1417
5Arna-Bjørnar W8+414
6Bryne W8−211
7Odd W8−19
8Kolbotn W8−18
9Grei W8−27
10Klepp W8−156
11Frigg Oslo FK W8−173
12Fyllingsdalen W8−183

The competition's standings before kick-off.