Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Premiership › Portadown v Linfield

Back
Northern Ireland flag

Portadown v Linfield

Portadown
1–2Full time
Linfield

Premiership · FRI 23 OCT · Shamrock Park

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30
Portadown 1–2 Linfield LINFIELD WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Linfield win60%
The market said64%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.236
The market’s Brier score0.196

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Linfield win at 60%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Linfield 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 18–22–60
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Portadown v Linfield
  4. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Portadown
  5. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Linfield win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
  6. 38′We said Linfield at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 17–35–48
  7. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Linfield
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Portadown 0–0 Linfield
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Portadown 0–0 Linfield
  10. 47′We said Linfield at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 16–40–44
  11. 48′Portadown score on 48′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 56–29–15
  12. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Linfield
  13. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Portadown 1–0 Linfield
  14. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Linfield win: 60% at kick-off, 15% now
  15. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Portadown win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Linfield win 44%)
  16. 49′We said Linfield at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 57–29–14
  17. 49′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 57–29–14
  18. 56′Linfield find the net on 55′. 1–1. 1–1 · 15–46–39
  19. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Portadown 1–1 Linfield
  20. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Linfield win: 60% at kick-off, 39% now
  21. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Portadown win 60%)
  22. 57′We said Linfield at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 15–47–38
  23. 63′We said Linfield at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 13–53–34
  24. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Linfield · On: J. Mulgrew · Off: C. Shields
  25. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Linfield · On: K. Millar · Off: K. Nelson
  26. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Linfield win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
  27. 69′We said Linfield at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 12–60–29
  28. 74′We said Linfield at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 10–67–23
  29. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Portadown · On: L. MacKinnon · Off: L. Chapman
  30. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Portadown · On: F. Flanagan · Off: G. Thompson
  31. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Linfield · On: K. Moore · Off: A. Frizzell
  32. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Linfield win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
  33. 78′We said Linfield at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 8–73–19
  34. 81′A goal for Linfield on 80′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
  35. 81′We said Linfield at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–2 · 0–6–94
  36. 81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Portadown 1–2 Linfield
  37. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Linfield win: 60% at kick-off, 94% now
  38. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Linfield win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 77%)
  39. 82′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–6–94
  40. 83′We said Linfield at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  41. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Linfield · On: D. Wells · Off: R. Brennan
  42. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Portadown · On: B. Wells · Off: B. Kennedy
  43. FTFULL TIME Portadown 1–2 Linfield
  44. FTPortadown 1–2 Linfield · Linfield win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Linfield are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Portadown 18%, draw 22%, Linfield 60%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Portadown v LinfieldBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Portadown win18%
Draw22%
Linfield win60%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 13

VenueShamrock Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portadown

Linfield

3Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Linfield12+929
11Portadown12−118

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · linfield winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off
60% The market64%
Us60%
Market64%

We make Linfield a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Portadown v Linfield0.79 – 1.73
Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 8 v 2911 v 2
The market · Linfield win64% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 19:15
Our probability · Linfield win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Portadown win18%15%+3
Draw22%21%+1
Linfield win60%64%−4
Over 2.5 goals46%55%−9
Both teams to score43%50%−7
Over 1.5 goals70%77%−7
Over 3.5 goals25%34%−9
Portadown or draw40%36%+4
Portadown clean sheet18%––
Linfield clean sheet46%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.8%
0123450 7.5 14.8 12.0 7.0 3.1 1 7.2 10.0 9.2 5.3 2.4 2 2.5 4.3 3.6 2.1 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Portadown down, Linfield across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.60
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsPOR 1–1 LIN · LIN 3–1 POR · POR 2–0 LIN · LIN 3–0 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept

PORTADOWN

DLLWDW1–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

LINFIELD

DWWWDW1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Coleraine FC12+1431
2Linfield12+929
3Glentoran12+620
4Larne9+1019
5Carrick Rangers12+217
6Ballymena United11+215
7Crusaders FC12−715
8Dungannon Swifts11−314
9Cliftonville FC12−212
10Limavady United11−612
11Portadown12−118
12Bangor12−146

The competition's standings before kick-off.