Home › Football › Premiership › Linfield v Bangor

Linfield v Bangor

Linfield

2–0Full time

Bangor

Premiership · SAT 10 OCT · Windsor Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Linfield 2–0 Bangor LINFIELD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Linfield win~~73%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.108

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.099

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Linfield win at 73%.
4′Much as we predicted: Linfield was 73% before kick-off and our model makes it 72% now. 0–0 · 72–18–10
4′KICK-OFF Linfield v Bangor
35′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Bangor · On: A. Mitchell · Off: C. McGuinness
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Bangor
45′We said Linfield at 73%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 56%. 0–0 · 56–33–11
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Linfield win: 73% at kick-off, 56% now
45′HALF-TIME Linfield 0–0 Bangor
48′SECOND HALF Linfield 0–0 Bangor
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Bangor · On: P. Solis Grogan · Off: G. Deane
56′🟥 RED CARD · 54' Bangor
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Linfield 1–0 Bangor
61′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Linfield · On: M. Fitzpatrick · Off: K. Nelson
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Bangor
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Linfield 2–0 Bangor
68′⚽ GOAL · 65' Linfield 2–0 Bangor · C. Shields
77′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Linfield · On: D. Wells · Off: A. Frizzell
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bangor · On: J. Boyd · Off: B. Arthurs
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bangor · On: L. McRoberts · Off: T. Mulvenna
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Linfield · On: S. Brown · Off: C. Shields
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Linfield · On: J. Mulgrew · Off: E. McGee
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Bangor
FTFULL TIME Linfield 2–0 Bangor
FTLinfield 2–0 Bangor · Linfield win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Linfield win73%

Draw16%

Bangor win10%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Windsor Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Linfield

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Johns

5 C. Shields

19 R. Brennan

8 K. McClean

10 A. Frizzell

15 B. Hall

26 I. Baird

27 E. McGee

14 K. Nelson

30 K. Moore

34 D. McCullough

Coach · David Healy

Substitutes

18 · A. Glavin

4 · R. Nolan

16 · D. Wells

24 · S. Brown

22 · J. Mulgrew

29 · M. Fitzpatrick

66 · C. Chapman

Bangor

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Deane

2 C. McGuinness

3 R. Neale

4 L. Francis

5 H. Lynch

6 L. Harrison

7 L. Hassin

8 T. Mulvenna

9 B. Arthurs

12 S. McCullough

29 I. Hughes

Coach · Lee Feeney

Substitutes

13 · P. Solis Grogan

16 · A. Mitchell

18 · O. Devlin

20 · L. McRoberts

21 · J. Boyd

23 · M. Strachan

28 · S. McGuinness

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Linfield

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Johns

5 C. Shields

19 R. Brennan

8 K. McClean

10 A. Frizzell

15 B. Hall

26 I. Baird

27 E. McGee

14 K. Nelson

30 K. Moore

34 D. McCullough

Coach · David Healy

Substitutes

18 · A. Glavin

4 · R. Nolan

16 · D. Wells

24 · S. Brown

22 · J. Mulgrew

29 · M. Fitzpatrick

66 · C. Chapman

Bangor

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Deane

2 C. McGuinness

3 R. Neale

4 L. Francis

5 H. Lynch

6 L. Harrison

7 L. Hassin

8 T. Mulvenna

9 B. Arthurs

12 S. McCullough

29 I. Hughes

Coach · Lee Feeney

Substitutes

13 · P. Solis Grogan

16 · A. Mitchell

18 · O. Devlin

20 · L. McRoberts

21 · J. Boyd

23 · M. Strachan

28 · S. McGuinness

Our number · linfield winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

73% The market75%

Us73%

~~Market~~75%

We make Linfield a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.2–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · linfield win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 74% to 75% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Linfield win	73%	75%	−1
Draw	16%	16%	0
Bangor win	10%	9%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	55%	59%	−4
Both teams to score	42%	45%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	39%	−6
Linfield or draw	90%	91%	−1
Linfield clean sheet	52%	–	–
Bangor clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.7%

0123450 5.2 4.4 1 13.2 7.5 2.7 2 13.7 8.8 2.9 3 10.1 6.5 2.2 4 5.8 3.7 5 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Linfield down, Bangor across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 Premiership matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Linfield at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bangor away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Linfield, 0.66 for Bangor. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~LIN 6–1 BAN · BAN 0–1 LIN · BAN 0–3 LIN

Form · last six in Premiership

LINFIELD

WWWDWW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–1

BANGOR

LDLWLL0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Coleraine FC	10	+12	25
2	Linfield	9	+6	22
3	Glentoran	11	+5	17
4	Larne	6	+9	16
5	Crusaders FC	10	−3	15
6	Carrick Rangers	10	0	13
7	Dungannon Swifts	9	−1	13
8	Ballymena United	9	+2	12
9	Cliftonville FC	10	0	12
10	Limavady United	9	−6	9
11	Bangor	10	−12	5
12	Portadown	11	−12	5