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Limavady United v Ballymena United

Limavady United

3–2Full time

Ballymena United

Premiership · SAT 10 OCT · The Showgrounds

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Limavady United 3–2 Ballymena United BALLYMENA UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ballymena United win~~39%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.627

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.815

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ballymena United win at 39%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Ballymena United 39% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 34–27–38
2′KICK-OFF Limavady United v Ballymena United
13′⚽ GOAL · 11' Limavady United 0–1 Ballymena United · J. Archer
17′⚽ GOAL · 15' Limavady United 0–2 Ballymena United · F. Thorndike
24′F. Thorndike scores for Ballymena United on 15′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–89
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Ballymena United win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
36′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Limavady United · On: O. Duffy · Off: A. Mullan
45′We said Ballymena United at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
45′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Limavady United · On: J. Riley · Off: R. Brown
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Limavady United 1–2 Ballymena United
45′HALF-TIME Limavady United 1–2 Ballymena United
46′SECOND HALF Limavady United 1–2 Ballymena United
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Limavady United 2–2 Ballymena United · J. McGonigle
49′⚽ GOAL · 47' Limavady United 2–2 Ballymena United · J. Riley
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Limavady United 3–2 Ballymena United
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Limavady United
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ballymena United · On: M. Leetch · Off: C. Allen
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ballymena United · On: M. Leetch · Off: C. Allen
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ballymena United · On: M. Leetch · Off: C. Allen
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ballymena United · On: S. Fallon · Off: F. Sule
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ballymena United · On: S. Murray · Off: F. Thorndike
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Limavady United
79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' Limavady United
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Limavady United
FTFULL TIME Limavady United 3–2 Ballymena United
FTLimavady United 3–2 Ballymena United · Ballymena United win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Limavady United win36%

Draw25%

Ballymena United win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · The Showgrounds

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Limavady United

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Gallagher

24 A. Mullan

15 S. O'Donnell

19 R. Brown

18 D. Lafferty

8 S. Lowry

16 R. Boorman

7 P. Lowry

11 L. Tosh

23 R. Wilson

10 J. McGonigle

Coach · Paul Owens

Substitutes

21 · F. Doherty

2 · J. Riley

9 · O. Duffy

27 · S. Carlin

22 · D. Curran

28 · L. Fleming

Ballymena United

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Walsh

2 D. Toure

6 F. Sule

8 J. Archer

9 I. Rutkowski

10 C. Allen

13 F. Thorndike

15 D. McCallion

21 J. Hood

24 C. McConnell

26 K. Lyons-Foster

Coach · Oran Kearney

Substitutes

23 · D. Breen

5 · S. Whiteside

17 · M. Leetch

18 · S. Murray

20 · S. Fallon

29 · O. Mahoney

32 · C. Burns

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Limavady United

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Gallagher

24 A. Mullan

15 S. O'Donnell

19 R. Brown

18 D. Lafferty

8 S. Lowry

16 R. Boorman

7 P. Lowry

11 L. Tosh

23 R. Wilson

10 J. McGonigle

Coach · Paul Owens

Substitutes

21 · F. Doherty

2 · J. Riley

9 · O. Duffy

27 · S. Carlin

22 · D. Curran

28 · L. Fleming

Ballymena United

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Walsh

2 D. Toure

6 F. Sule

8 J. Archer

9 I. Rutkowski

10 C. Allen

13 F. Thorndike

15 D. McCallion

21 J. Hood

24 C. McConnell

26 K. Lyons-Foster

Coach · Oran Kearney

Substitutes

23 · D. Breen

5 · S. Whiteside

17 · M. Leetch

18 · S. Murray

20 · S. Fallon

29 · O. Mahoney

32 · C. Burns

Our number · ballymena united winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

39% The market47%

Us39%

~~Market~~47%

We make Ballymena United a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.3.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Limavady United win	36%	27%	+8
Draw	25%	25%	0
Ballymena United win	39%	47%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	45%	56%	−11
Both teams to score	49%	59%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	70%	78%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	24%	36%	−12
Limavady United or draw	61%	53%	+8
Limavady United clean sheet	28%	–	–
Ballymena United clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.7%

0123450 7.6 11.7 6.9 3.0 1 11.0 11.5 7.9 3.4 2 6.1 7.5 4.7 2.0 3 2.5 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Limavady United down, Ballymena United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 Premiership matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Limavady United at home: 1.00 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). Ballymena United away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Limavady United, 1.29 for Ballymena United. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premiership

LIMAVADY UNITED

LWWLWL0–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3

BALLYMENA UNITED

DLDDWW2–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Coleraine FC	10	+12	25
2	Linfield	9	+6	22
3	Glentoran	11	+5	17
4	Larne	6	+9	16
5	Crusaders FC	10	−3	15
6	Carrick Rangers	10	0	13
7	Dungannon Swifts	9	−1	13
8	Ballymena United	9	+2	12
9	Cliftonville FC	10	0	12
10	Limavady United	9	−6	9
11	Bangor	10	−12	5
12	Portadown	11	−12	5