Larne v Portadown prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LarneDrawPortadown

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Larne 74%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Larne are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Larne 74%, draw 16%, Portadown 10%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Larne v PortadownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Larne win74%

Draw16%

Portadown win10%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

VenueInver Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Larne

Portadown

6Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

Last match: 23 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Larne	10	+11	22
11	Portadown	13	−12	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · larne winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

74% The market–

Us74%

We make Larne a 74% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.6, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Larne v Portadown~~2.26 – 0.64

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 22 v 8~~3 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Larne win	74%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Portadown win	10%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Larne or draw	90%	–	–
Larne clean sheet	53%	–	–
Portadown clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.8%

0123450 5.3 4.3 1 13.2 7.4 2.6 2 13.8 8.6 2.8 3 10.3 6.4 2.0 4 6.0 3.6 5 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Larne down, Portadown across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,239 Premiership matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.4% of games this season, across 74 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Larne at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Portadown away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for Larne, 0.64 for Portadown. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~POR 0–2 LAR · POR 2–1 LAR · LAR 3–0 POR · LAR 4–0 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept

LARNE

WWWLLW2–0 · 5–2 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–1

PORTADOWN

LLWDWL1–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Coleraine FC	13	+19	34
2	Linfield	13	+10	32
3	Larne	10	+11	22
4	Glentoran	12	+6	20
5	Carrick Rangers	13	+2	18
6	Ballymena United	11	+2	15
7	Cliftonville FC	13	0	15
8	Crusaders FC	13	−12	15
9	Dungannon Swifts	12	−5	14
10	Limavady United	12	−6	13
11	Portadown	13	−12	8
12	Bangor	13	−15	6