Larne v Limavady United prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LarneDrawLimavady United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Larne 73%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Larne are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Larne 73%, draw 16%, Limavady United 11%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Larne v Limavady UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Larne win73%

Draw16%

Limavady United win11%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 3

VenueInver Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Larne

Limavady United

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Larne	9	+10	19
10	Limavady United	11	−6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · larne winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

73% The market–

Us73%

We make Larne a 73% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–0.6, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Larne v Limavady United~~2.22 – 0.63

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 12~~4 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Larne win	73%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Limavady United win	11%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Larne or draw	89%	–	–
Larne clean sheet	54%	–	–
Limavady United clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.8%

0123450 5.6 4.6 1 13.6 7.5 2.7 2 13.8 8.5 2.8 3 10.1 6.1 4 5.9 3.4 5 2.8

under 2% 5% 12%+Larne down, Limavady United across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,235 Premiership matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Larne at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Limavady United away: 0.60 scored, 1.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.22 goals for Larne, 0.63 for Limavady United. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~LIM 0–0 LAR · LAR 4–0 LIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept

LARNE

WWWLLW2–0 · 5–2 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 2–1

LIMAVADY UNITED

LWLWLD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Linfield	13	+10	32
2	Coleraine FC	12	+14	31
3	Glentoran	12	+6	20
4	Larne	9	+10	19
5	Carrick Rangers	12	+2	17
6	Ballymena United	11	+2	15
7	Crusaders FC	12	−7	15
8	Dungannon Swifts	11	−3	14
9	Cliftonville FC	12	−2	12
10	Limavady United	11	−6	12
11	Portadown	13	−12	8
12	Bangor	12	−14	6