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Larne v Coleraine FC
Larne
Coleraine FCPremiership · FRI 16 OCT · Inver Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Larne win at 52%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Larne 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–23
- 1′KICK-OFF Larne v Coleraine FC
- 16′Larne score on 16′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
- 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Larne 1–0 Coleraine FC
- 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Larne win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
- 17′We said Larne at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
- 23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Coleraine FC
- 24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Larne
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
- 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Larne
- 45′HALF-TIME Larne 1–0 Coleraine FC
- 46′SECOND HALF Larne 1–0 Coleraine FC
- 49′We said Larne at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 50′Larne find the net on 50′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
- 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Larne 2–0 Coleraine FC
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Larne win: 52% at kick-off, 96% now
- 51′We said Larne at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
- 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Coleraine FC · On: L. Ives · Off: D. Boyle
- 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Coleraine FC · On: R. McDonald · Off: L. Kane
- 60′A goal for Coleraine FC on 60′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
- 60′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–15–3
- 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Larne 2–1 Coleraine FC
- 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Larne win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
- 61′J. Cooper scores for Coleraine FC on 59′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
- 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Coleraine FC
- 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Larne
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Coleraine FC · On: A. Brooks · Off: B. Wylie
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Larne · On: K. O'Hara · Off: D. Sloan
- 68′We said Larne at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
- 69′Coleraine FC score on 69′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 26–59–15
- 69′We said Larne at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 2–2 · 26–59–15
- 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Larne 2–2 Coleraine FC
- 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Larne win: 52% at kick-off, 26% now
- 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Larne win 26%)
- 70′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 25–61–14
- 71′We said Larne at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–62–14
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Coleraine FC · On: R. Slevin · Off: A. Wilson
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Larne win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
- 76′We said Larne at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–69–11
- 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Larne
- 81′Coleraine FC find the net on 81′. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–12–86
- 81′We said Larne at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–3 · 1–12–86
- 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Larne 2–3 Coleraine FC
- 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Larne win: 52% at kick-off, 1% now
- 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Coleraine FC win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 12%)
- 82′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–11–88
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Larne · On: M. Gibson · Off: R. Doherty
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Larne · On: J. Ukek · Off: P. O'Neill
- FTFULL TIME Larne 2–3 Coleraine FC
- FTLarne 2–3 Coleraine FC · Larne win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassLarne are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Larne 52%, draw 23%, Coleraine FC 25%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
Larne win52%
Coleraine FC win25%Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45
RoundMatchday 12
VenueInver Park
Match timeline
All events
LarneMIN
Coleraine FCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Larne
Coleraine FC
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Larne
Coleraine FC
Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership
Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Larne
Formation not confirmed
1 R. Ferguson
23 T. Cosgrove
26 D. Bent
3 M. Ridley
4 A. Donnelly
15 R. Doherty
22 J. McEneff
25 D. Sloan
47 J. Simpson
21 L. Millar
9 P. O'Neill
Coach · Gary Haveron
Substitutes
16 · J. Carney
27 · G. Sandiford
8 · M. Randall
17 · J. Ukek
7 · C. McKendry
45 · M. Gibson
19 · K. O'Hara
Coleraine FC
Formation not confirmed
12 L. Webb
2 L. Kane
16 A. Wilson
5 C. Stewart
23 B. Doherty
8 W. Patching
4 D. Boyle
42 J. Thomson
11 J. Cooper
22 B. Wylie
9 M. Shevlin
Coach · Ruaidhri Higgins
Substitutes
1 · R. Schofield
15 · L. Ives
17 · J. Henderson
18 · A. Brooks
19 · R. Slevin
20 · S. Devine
21 · R. McDonald
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Larne
Formation not confirmed
1 R. Ferguson
23 T. Cosgrove
26 D. Bent
3 M. Ridley
4 A. Donnelly
15 R. Doherty
22 J. McEneff
25 D. Sloan
47 J. Simpson
21 L. Millar
9 P. O'Neill
Coach · Gary Haveron
Substitutes
16 · J. Carney
27 · G. Sandiford
8 · M. Randall
17 · J. Ukek
7 · C. McKendry
45 · M. Gibson
19 · K. O'Hara
Coleraine FC
Formation not confirmed
12 L. Webb
2 L. Kane
16 A. Wilson
5 C. Stewart
23 B. Doherty
8 W. Patching
4 D. Boyle
42 J. Thomson
11 J. Cooper
22 B. Wylie
9 M. Shevlin
Coach · Ruaidhri Higgins
Substitutes
1 · R. Schofield
15 · L. Ives
17 · J. Henderson
18 · A. Brooks
19 · R. Slevin
20 · S. Devine
21 · R. McDonald
We make Larne a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Larne win | 52% | 39% | +13 |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | −6 |
| Coleraine FC win | 25% | 31% | −6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 28% | −2 |
| Larne or draw | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Larne clean sheet | 37% | – | – |
| Coleraine FC clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 4 Sept
LARNE
COLERAINE FC
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 11 | +13 | 28 |
| 2 | Linfield | 10 | +8 | 25 |
| 3 | Larne | 7 | +12 | 19 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 11 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 | Crusaders FC | 11 | −6 | 15 |
| 7 | Dungannon Swifts | 10 | −3 | 13 |
| 8 | Ballymena United | 10 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Cliftonville FC | 11 | −1 | 12 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 10 | −5 | 12 |
| 11 | Portadown | 11 | −12 | 5 |
| 12 | Bangor | 11 | −14 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Linfield
Glentoran
Carrick Rangers
Crusaders FC
Dungannon Swifts
Ballymena United
Cliftonville FC
Limavady United
Portadown
Bangor