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Larne v Coleraine FC

Larne
2–3Full time
Coleraine FC

Premiership · FRI 16 OCT · Inver Park

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:30
Larne 2–3 Coleraine FC LARNE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Larne win52%
The market said39%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.894
The market’s Brier score0.713

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Larne win at 52%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Larne 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–25–23
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Larne v Coleraine FC
  4. 16′Larne score on 16′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–7
  5. 16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Larne 1–0 Coleraine FC
  6. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Larne win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
  7. 17′We said Larne at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
  8. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Coleraine FC
  9. 24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Larne
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 78–16–6
  11. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Larne
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Larne 1–0 Coleraine FC
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Larne 1–0 Coleraine FC
  14. 49′We said Larne at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  15. 50′Larne find the net on 50′. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
  16. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Larne 2–0 Coleraine FC
  17. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Larne win: 52% at kick-off, 96% now
  18. 51′We said Larne at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
  19. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Coleraine FC · On: L. Ives · Off: D. Boyle
  20. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Coleraine FC · On: R. McDonald · Off: L. Kane
  21. 60′A goal for Coleraine FC on 60′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
  22. 60′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–15–3
  23. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Larne 2–1 Coleraine FC
  24. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Larne win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
  25. 61′J. Cooper scores for Coleraine FC on 59′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 82–15–3
  26. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Coleraine FC
  27. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Larne
  28. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Coleraine FC · On: A. Brooks · Off: B. Wylie
  29. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Larne · On: K. O'Hara · Off: D. Sloan
  30. 68′We said Larne at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  31. 69′Coleraine FC score on 69′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 26–59–15
  32. 69′We said Larne at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 2–2 · 26–59–15
  33. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Larne 2–2 Coleraine FC
  34. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Larne win: 52% at kick-off, 26% now
  35. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Larne win 26%)
  36. 70′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 25–61–14
  37. 71′We said Larne at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–62–14
  38. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Coleraine FC · On: R. Slevin · Off: A. Wilson
  39. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Larne win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
  40. 76′We said Larne at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–69–11
  41. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Larne
  42. 81′Coleraine FC find the net on 81′. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–12–86
  43. 81′We said Larne at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–3 · 1–12–86
  44. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Larne 2–3 Coleraine FC
  45. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Larne win: 52% at kick-off, 1% now
  46. 81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Coleraine FC win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 12%)
  47. 82′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–11–88
  48. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Larne · On: M. Gibson · Off: R. Doherty
  49. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Larne · On: J. Ukek · Off: P. O'Neill
  50. FTFULL TIME Larne 2–3 Coleraine FC
  51. FTLarne 2–3 Coleraine FC · Larne win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Larne are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Larne 52%, draw 23%, Coleraine FC 25%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Larne v Coleraine FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Larne win52%
Draw23%
Coleraine FC win25%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenueInver Park

Line-ups

Larne

Coleraine FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Larne

Coleraine FC

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Coleraine FC11+1328
3Larne7+1219

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Larne

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Ferguson

23 T. Cosgrove

26 D. Bent

3 M. Ridley

4 A. Donnelly

15 R. Doherty

22 J. McEneff

25 D. Sloan

47 J. Simpson

21 L. Millar

9 P. O'Neill

Coach · Gary Haveron

Substitutes

16 · J. Carney

27 · G. Sandiford

8 · M. Randall

17 · J. Ukek

7 · C. McKendry

45 · M. Gibson

19 · K. O'Hara

Coleraine FC

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Webb

2 L. Kane

16 A. Wilson

5 C. Stewart

23 B. Doherty

8 W. Patching

4 D. Boyle

42 J. Thomson

11 J. Cooper

22 B. Wylie

9 M. Shevlin

Coach · Ruaidhri Higgins

Substitutes

1 · R. Schofield

15 · L. Ives

17 · J. Henderson

18 · A. Brooks

19 · R. Slevin

20 · S. Devine

21 · R. McDonald

Our number · larne winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off
52% The market39%
Us52%
Market39%

We make Larne a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Larne v Coleraine FC1.60 – 0.99
Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 4 SeptW6 D0 L0 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 19 v 283 v 1
The market · Larne win39% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 10 OCT 03:5716 OCT 19:11
Our probability · Larne win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Larne win52%39%+13
Draw23%29%−6
Coleraine FC win25%31%−6
Over 2.5 goals48%48%0
Both teams to score49%53%−4
Over 1.5 goals72%71%+1
Over 3.5 goals26%28%−2
Larne or draw75%69%+6
Larne clean sheet37%––
Coleraine FC clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.0%
0123450 6.8 8.5 3.7 1 13.0 10.7 5.8 2 9.5 9.2 4.6 3 5.1 5.0 2.5 4 2.1 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Larne down, Coleraine FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsCOL 0–0 LAR · LAR 1–4 COL · COL 1–1 LAR · LAR 3–0 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 4 Sept

LARNE

WWWWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 5–2 · 3–0

COLERAINE FC

WWWLWW3–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Coleraine FC11+1328
2Linfield10+825
3Larne7+1219
4Glentoran11+517
5Carrick Rangers11+216
6Crusaders FC11−615
7Dungannon Swifts10−313
8Ballymena United10+112
9Cliftonville FC11−112
10Limavady United10−512
11Portadown11−125
12Bangor11−145

The competition's standings before kick-off.