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Glentoran v Limavady United

Glentoran
1–0Full time
Limavady United

Premiership · SAT 17 OCT · The BetMcLean Oval

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Glentoran 1–0 Limavady United GLENTORAN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Glentoran win67%
The market said70%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.160
The market’s Brier score0.138

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 25 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Glentoran win at 67%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Glentoran was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–18–15
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Glentoran v Limavady United
  4. 9′Much as we predicted: Glentoran was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–15
  5. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Glentoran win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
  6. 37′We said Glentoran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–30–15
  7. 40′We said Glentoran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–31–15
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Glentoran 0–0 Limavady United
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Glentoran 0–0 Limavady United
  10. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Glentoran · On: P. Hoban · Off: G. Sloggett
  11. 49′We said Glentoran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–37–14
  12. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Glentoran win: 67% at kick-off, 47% now
  13. 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 45–41–14
  14. 57′We said Glentoran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–43–13
  15. 60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Limavady United
  16. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Glentoran win 41%)
  17. 63′We said Glentoran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–48–12
  18. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Glentoran · On: J. Daniels · Off: J. Jenkins
  19. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Glentoran win: 67% at kick-off, 37% now
  20. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Limavady United · On: J. Butcher · Off: J. Riley
  21. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Glentoran · On: J. Douglas · Off: A. McEneff
  22. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Glentoran · On: B. Gallagher · Off: C. McMenamin
  23. 69′We said Glentoran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–56–11
  24. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Glentoran
  25. 73′We said Glentoran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–61–10
  26. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Glentoran win: 67% at kick-off, 26% now
  27. 77′We said Glentoran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–68–8
  28. 80′We said Glentoran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–74–7
  29. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Glentoran · On: C. Rogers-Duffy · Off: M. Kane
  30. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Glentoran win: 67% at kick-off, 16% now
  31. 83′We said Glentoran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–81–5
  32. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Glentoran
  33. 88′We said Glentoran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–88–3
  34. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Limavady United · On: A. Jarvis · Off: S. Lowry
  35. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Glentoran win: 67% at kick-off, 7% now
  36. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Limavady United
  37. 92′We said Glentoran at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–2
  38. 94′A goal for Glentoran on 90′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 99–1–0
  39. 94′We published Glentoran at 67%. Our model now makes it 99%. 1–0 · 99–1–0
  40. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Glentoran 1–0 Limavady United
  41. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Glentoran win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
  42. 94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Glentoran win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
  43. FTFULL TIME Glentoran 1–0 Limavady United
  44. FTGlentoran 1–0 Limavady United · Glentoran win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Glentoran are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Glentoran 67%, draw 18%, Limavady United 15%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Glentoran v Limavady UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Glentoran win67%
Draw18%
Limavady United win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueThe BetMcLean Oval

Line-ups

Glentoran

Limavady United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Glentoran

Limavady United

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Glentoran11+517
10Limavady United10−512

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Glentoran

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Mills

2 R. Cooney

16 E. Schilte-Brown

20 D. Larmour

3 M. Kane

8 A. McEneff

12 G. Sloggett

29 J. Malone

7 R. Clarke

30 J. Jenkins

24 C. McMenamin

Coach · Declan Devine

Substitutes

31 · W. Francis Crellin

11 · J. Daniels

38 · J. Faloona

9 · P. Hoban

19 · B. Gallagher

44 · J. Douglas

41 · C. Rogers-Duffy

Limavady United

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Gallagher

2 J. Riley

4 K. Farren

5 T. Boorman

18 D. Lafferty

23 R. Wilson

7 P. Lowry

8 S. Lowry

11 L. Tosh

16 R. Boorman

10 J. McGonigle

Coach · Paul Owens

Substitutes

6 · A. Jarvis

9 · O. Duffy

17 · J. Butcher

21 · F. Doherty

24 · A. Mullan

28 · L. Fleming

Our number · glentoran winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 03:55 · locked at kick-off
67% The market70%
Us67%
Market70%

We make Glentoran a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Glentoran v Limavady United2.11 – 0.80
Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 12 SeptW3 D2 L1 · W4 D0 L2
Table places · points 17 v 124 v 10
The market · Glentoran win70% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 14:11
Our probability · Glentoran win The market, margin stripped

Published at 68%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 70% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Glentoran win67%70%−3
Draw18%18%0
Limavady United win15%12%+3
Over 2.5 goals55%60%−5
Both teams to score46%51%−5
Over 1.5 goals77%80%−3
Over 3.5 goals33%40%−7
Glentoran or draw85%88%−3
Glentoran clean sheet46%––
Limavady United clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.4%
0123450 5.1 5.4 1 12.4 8.4 3.7 2 11.9 9.2 3.7 3 8.3 6.3 2.5 4 4.6 3.4 5 2.1
under 2% 5% 12%+Glentoran down, Limavady United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.50 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsGLE 2–0 LIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 12 Sept

GLENTORAN

DLWWWD1–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0

LIMAVADY UNITED

WWLWLW2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Coleraine FC12+1431
2Linfield10+825
3Larne8+1119
4Glentoran11+517
5Carrick Rangers11+216
6Crusaders FC11−615
7Dungannon Swifts10−313
8Ballymena United10+112
9Cliftonville FC11−112
10Limavady United10−512
11Portadown11−125
12Bangor11−145

The competition's standings before kick-off.