Glentoran v Ballymena United prediction · Premiership

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Glentoran are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Glentoran 62%, draw 20%, Ballymena United 17%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Glentoran v Ballymena UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Glentoran win62%

Draw20%

Ballymena United win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueThe BetMcLean Oval

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Glentoran

Ballymena United

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Glentoran	12	+6	20
6	Ballymena United	11	+2	15

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Ferguson's first game as Glentoran boss postponedBBC Sport · 24 Oct 12:14 · Glentoran

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · glentoran winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

62% The market57%

Us62%

~~Market~~57%

We make Glentoran a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Glentoran v Ballymena United~~1.88 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 15~~3 v 6

~~The market · Glentoran win~~57% · ours 62%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Glentoran win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Glentoran win	62%	57%	+5
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Ballymena United win	17%	20%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	51%	58%	−7
Both teams to score	47%	57%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	74%	79%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	37%	−8
Glentoran or draw	83%	80%	+3
Glentoran clean sheet	43%	–	–
Ballymena United clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.1%

0123450 6.0 6.4 2.4 1 13.1 9.5 4.4 2 11.4 9.5 4.0 3 7.2 6.0 2.5 4 3.5 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Glentoran down, Ballymena United across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,235 Premiership matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Glentoran at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ballymena United away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Glentoran, 0.85 for Ballymena United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAL 0–2 GLE · GLE 2–1 BAL · GLE 2–0 BAL · BAL 0–2 GLE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept

GLENTORAN

LWWWDW1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

BALLYMENA UNITED

DDWWLW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Linfield	13	+10	32
2	Coleraine FC	12	+14	31
3	Glentoran	12	+6	20
4	Larne	9	+10	19
5	Carrick Rangers	12	+2	17
6	Ballymena United	11	+2	15
7	Crusaders FC	12	−7	15
8	Dungannon Swifts	11	−3	14
9	Cliftonville FC	12	−2	12
10	Limavady United	11	−6	12
11	Portadown	13	−12	8
12	Bangor	12	−14	6