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Dungannon Swifts v Cliftonville FC

Dungannon Swifts

1–3Full time

Cliftonville FC

Premiership · SAT 24 OCT · Stangmore Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Dungannon Swifts 1–3 Cliftonville FC CLIFTONVILLE FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cliftonville FC win~~45%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.462

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.737

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cliftonville FC win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cliftonville FC 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 32–23–45
1′KICK-OFF Dungannon Swifts v Cliftonville FC
26′Cliftonville FC find the net on 26′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–20–70
26′We said Cliftonville FC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 11–20–70
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Dungannon Swifts 0–1 Cliftonville FC
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Cliftonville FC win: 45% at kick-off, 70% now
28′Cliftonville FC ahead on 25′ through B. Healy. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–20–70
28′A goal for Cliftonville FC on 28′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–8–90
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Dungannon Swifts 0–2 Cliftonville FC
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Cliftonville FC win: 45% at kick-off, 90% now
29′We said Cliftonville FC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–2 · 3–8–90
45′HALF-TIME Dungannon Swifts 0–2 Cliftonville FC
46′SECOND HALF Dungannon Swifts 0–2 Cliftonville FC
50′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–93
56′We said Cliftonville FC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Cliftonville FC win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dungannon Swifts · On: J. Glackin · Off: P. Doyle
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dungannon Swifts · On: L. Alves · Off: J. Ogedi-Uzokwe
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dungannon Swifts · On: A. Mitchell · Off: K. Dillon
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dungannon Swifts · On: C. Smith · Off: S. Scott
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Cliftonville FC
72′Dungannon Swifts score on 71′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–83
72′We said Cliftonville FC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–2 · 2–15–83
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Dungannon Swifts 1–2 Cliftonville FC
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Cliftonville FC win: 45% at kick-off, 83% now
73′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–15–83
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Cliftonville FC · On: R. Campbell · Off: B. Quinn
74′70′: S. McAllister on the scoresheet for Dungannon Swifts, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
75′We said Cliftonville FC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
75′Cliftonville FC find the net on 75′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
75′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–98
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Dungannon Swifts 1–3 Cliftonville FC
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Cliftonville FC win: 45% at kick-off, 98% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Cliftonville FC · On: C. Murray · Off: L. McStravick Corrected
83′We said Cliftonville FC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Dungannon Swifts 1–3 Cliftonville FC
FTDungannon Swifts 1–3 Cliftonville FC · Cliftonville FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cliftonville FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dungannon Swifts 33%, draw 23%, Cliftonville FC 45%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Dungannon Swifts v Cliftonville FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dungannon Swifts win33%

Draw23%

Cliftonville FC win45%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueStangmore Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dungannon Swifts

Cliftonville FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Dungannon Swifts	11	−3	14
9	Cliftonville FC	12	−2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cliftonville fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

45% The market31%

Us45%

~~Market~~31%

We make Cliftonville FC a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 14 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dungannon Swifts v Cliftonville FC~~1.31 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 14 v 12~~8 v 9

~~The market · Cliftonville FC win~~31% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cliftonville FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dungannon Swifts win	33%	44%	−11
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Cliftonville FC win	45%	31%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	55%	56%	−1
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	33%	37%	−4
Dungannon Swifts or draw	55%	69%	−14
Dungannon Swifts clean sheet	21%	–	–
Cliftonville FC clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.9 9.7 7.0 3.7 1 8.2 10.5 8.9 4.7 2 4.8 7.3 5.8 3.1 3 2.1 3.2 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dungannon Swifts down, Cliftonville FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,235 Premiership matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dungannon Swifts at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cliftonville FC away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Dungannon Swifts, 1.59 for Cliftonville FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CLI 0–2 DUN · CLI 1–2 DUN · CLI 1–0 DUN · CLI 0–0 DUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 12 Sept

DUNGANNON SWIFTS

LLDLLD0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 0–0

CLIFTONVILLE FC

LLLLLL0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Linfield	13	+10	32
2	Coleraine FC	12	+14	31
3	Glentoran	12	+6	20
4	Larne	9	+10	19
5	Carrick Rangers	12	+2	17
6	Ballymena United	11	+2	15
7	Crusaders FC	12	−7	15
8	Dungannon Swifts	11	−3	14
9	Cliftonville FC	12	−2	12
10	Limavady United	11	−6	12
11	Portadown	13	−12	8
12	Bangor	12	−14	6