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Dungannon Swifts v Carrick Rangers

Dungannon Swifts

2–4Full time

Carrick Rangers

Premiership · SAT 10 OCT · Stangmore Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Dungannon Swifts 2–4 Carrick Rangers CARRICK RANGERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Carrick Rangers win~~41%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.539

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.677

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Carrick Rangers win at 41%.
4′Much as we predicted: Carrick Rangers was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 36–24–40
4′KICK-OFF Dungannon Swifts v Carrick Rangers
12′⚽ GOAL · 10' Dungannon Swifts 0–1 Carrick Rangers · P. Heatley
14′⚽ GOAL · 11' Dungannon Swifts 1–1 Carrick Rangers · K. Dillon
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Dungannon Swifts 1–2 Carrick Rangers
26′J. Crowe scores for Carrick Rangers on 20′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 14–21–66
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Carrick Rangers win: 41% at kick-off, 66% now
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Carrick Rangers
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Dungannon Swifts
45′45′ and it is 1–3: D. Wallace on the scoresheet for Carrick Rangers. 1–3 · 2–8–90
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Dungannon Swifts 1–3 Carrick Rangers
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Carrick Rangers win: 41% at kick-off, 90% now
45′HALF-TIME Dungannon Swifts 1–3 Carrick Rangers
46′SECOND HALF Dungannon Swifts 1–3 Carrick Rangers
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Carrick Rangers
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dungannon Swifts · On: T. Kelly · Off: G. Bigirimana
53′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dungannon Swifts · On: C. McGinty · Off: S. Gordon
53′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Carrick Rangers
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Carrick Rangers
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Dungannon Swifts 1–4 Carrick Rangers
67′⚽ GOAL · 62' Dungannon Swifts 1–4 Carrick Rangers · D. Gibson
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dungannon Swifts · On: A. Mitchell · Off: J. Glackin
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dungannon Swifts · On: C. Smith · Off: J. Ogedi-Uzokwe
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dungannon Swifts · On: A. Mitchell · Off: J. Glackin
73′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dungannon Swifts · On: C. Smith · Off: J. Ogedi-Uzokwe
74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dungannon Swifts · On: A. Mitchell · Off: J. Glackin
74′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dungannon Swifts · On: C. Smith · Off: J. Ogedi-Uzokwe
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Carrick Rangers
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Dungannon Swifts 2–4 Carrick Rangers
82′⚽ GOAL · 80' Dungannon Swifts 2–4 Carrick Rangers
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Carrick Rangers · On: N. Maciulaitis · Off: A. Lecky
FTFULL TIME Dungannon Swifts 2–4 Carrick Rangers
FTDungannon Swifts 2–4 Carrick Rangers · Carrick Rangers win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dungannon Swifts win38%

Draw22%

Carrick Rangers win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Stangmore Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Dungannon Swifts

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Henderson

5 B. McKeown

10 K. Dillon

13 L. Alves

14 A. Glenny

16 S. Gordon

17 J. Glackin

23 D. Wallace

34 G. Bigirimana

40 J. Ogedi-Uzokwe

67 S. McAllister

Coach · Rodney McAree

Substitutes

41 · C. McCloskey

2 · C. McGinty

3 · J. Scott

6 · T. Kelly

7 · C. Smith

9 · A. Mitchell

21 · P. Doyle

Carrick Rangers

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Gartside

3 K. Nelson

5 J. Forsythe

6 J. Callacher

9 D. Gibson

10 A. Lecky

14 A. Steele

15 B. Buchanan-Rolleston

19 J. Crowe

22 P. Heatley

24 M. Snoddy

Coach · Stephen Baxter

Substitutes

25 · D. Agnew

7 · D. O'Conchubhair

8 · S. Clucas

11 · N. Maciulaitis

17 · J. Moore

23 · J. Hastings

30 · C. Hawthorne

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dungannon Swifts

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Henderson

5 B. McKeown

10 K. Dillon

13 L. Alves

14 A. Glenny

16 S. Gordon

17 J. Glackin

23 D. Wallace

34 G. Bigirimana

40 J. Ogedi-Uzokwe

67 S. McAllister

Coach · Rodney McAree

Substitutes

41 · C. McCloskey

2 · C. McGinty

3 · J. Scott

6 · T. Kelly

7 · C. Smith

9 · A. Mitchell

21 · P. Doyle

Carrick Rangers

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Gartside

3 K. Nelson

5 J. Forsythe

6 J. Callacher

9 D. Gibson

10 A. Lecky

14 A. Steele

15 B. Buchanan-Rolleston

19 J. Crowe

22 P. Heatley

24 M. Snoddy

Coach · Stephen Baxter

Substitutes

25 · D. Agnew

7 · D. O'Conchubhair

8 · S. Clucas

11 · N. Maciulaitis

17 · J. Moore

23 · J. Hastings

30 · C. Hawthorne

Our number · carrick rangers winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market33%

Us41%

~~Market~~33%

We make Carrick Rangers a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dungannon Swifts win	38%	41%	−3
Draw	22%	26%	−4
Carrick Rangers win	41%	33%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	58%	+3
Both teams to score	62%	61%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	38%	+2
Dungannon Swifts or draw	59%	67%	−7
Dungannon Swifts clean sheet	20%	–	–
Carrick Rangers clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.5 7.6 5.5 3.0 1 7.3 9.5 8.3 4.6 2 5.0 8.0 6.4 3.5 3 2.6 4.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dungannon Swifts down, Carrick Rangers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 Premiership matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

19 previous meetings, 3.42 goals a meeting; 13 of 19 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dungannon Swifts at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Carrick Rangers away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Dungannon Swifts, 1.64 for Carrick Rangers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

19 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.42

~~Over 2.5~~13 of 19

~~Both scored~~11 of 19

~~Last meetings~~DUN 3–1 CAR · CAR 5–1 DUN · CAR 3–3 DUN · DUN 0–2 CAR

Form · last six in Premiership

DUNGANNON SWIFTS

WWLLDL2–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2

CARRICK RANGERS

LLDLLW0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–5 · 0–2 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Coleraine FC	10	+12	25
2	Linfield	9	+6	22
3	Glentoran	11	+5	17
4	Larne	6	+9	16
5	Crusaders FC	10	−3	15
6	Carrick Rangers	10	0	13
7	Dungannon Swifts	9	−1	13
8	Ballymena United	9	+2	12
9	Cliftonville FC	10	0	12
10	Limavady United	9	−6	9
11	Bangor	10	−12	5
12	Portadown	11	−12	5