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Crusaders FC v Larne

Crusaders FC

0–3Full time

Larne

Premiership · SAT 10 OCT · Seaview

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Crusaders FC 0–3 Larne LARNE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Larne win~~66%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.169

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.139

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Larne win at 66%.
4′Little has changed for our model: Larne 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 14–20–66
4′KICK-OFF Crusaders FC v Larne
39′⚽ GOAL · 36' Crusaders FC 0–1 Larne · R. Doherty
45′R. Doherty scores for Larne on 36′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–12–85
45′HALF-TIME Crusaders FC 0–1 Larne
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Larne win: 66% at kick-off, 85% now
47′SECOND HALF Crusaders FC 0–1 Larne
55′⚽ GOAL · 52' Crusaders FC 0–2 Larne · J. McEneff
75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Larne
76′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Larne
77′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Larne
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Crusaders FC · On: J. Doherty · Off: D. Rocks
78′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Larne
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Crusaders FC 0–3 Larne
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Crusaders FC 0–3 Larne · G. Sandiford
FTFULL TIME Crusaders FC 0–3 Larne
FTCrusaders FC 0–3 Larne · Larne win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Crusaders FC win15%

Draw18%

Larne win66%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Seaview

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Crusaders FC

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Callister

3 G. Kelly

4 J. Blaney

5 S. Rough

6 R. Weir

8 H. Jewitt-White

11 E. Dunlop

14 D. Rocks

15 O. Wardell

18 A. Reid

22 R. McKay

Coach · Declan Caddell

Substitutes

12 · J. Doherty

16 · J. Williamson

17 · K. Bond

23 · O. McCart

27 · T. Maguire

42 · L. Anderson

43 · L. Barr

Larne

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Ferguson

23 T. Cosgrove

26 D. Bent

3 M. Ridley

4 A. Donnelly

21 L. Millar

6 C. Gallagher

15 R. Doherty

22 J. McEneff

47 J. Simpson

9 P. O'Neill

Coach · Gary Haveron

Substitutes

16 · J. Carney

27 · G. Sandiford

8 · M. Randall

25 · D. Sloan

7 · C. McKendry

17 · J. Ukek

45 · M. Gibson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Crusaders FC

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Callister

3 G. Kelly

4 J. Blaney

5 S. Rough

6 R. Weir

8 H. Jewitt-White

11 E. Dunlop

14 D. Rocks

15 O. Wardell

18 A. Reid

22 R. McKay

Coach · Declan Caddell

Substitutes

12 · J. Doherty

16 · J. Williamson

17 · K. Bond

23 · O. McCart

27 · T. Maguire

42 · L. Anderson

43 · L. Barr

Larne

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Ferguson

23 T. Cosgrove

26 D. Bent

3 M. Ridley

4 A. Donnelly

21 L. Millar

6 C. Gallagher

15 R. Doherty

22 J. McEneff

47 J. Simpson

9 P. O'Neill

Coach · Gary Haveron

Substitutes

16 · J. Carney

27 · G. Sandiford

8 · M. Randall

25 · D. Sloan

7 · C. McKendry

17 · J. Ukek

45 · M. Gibson

Our number · larne winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

66% The market70%

Us66%

~~Market~~70%

We make Larne a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · larne win The market, margin stripped

Published at 67%, 66% now. The market has gone from 69% to 70% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Crusaders FC win	15%	12%	+3
Draw	18%	18%	0
Larne win	66%	70%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Crusaders FC or draw	34%	30%	+3
Crusaders FC clean sheet	13%	–	–
Larne clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.8%

0123450 4.8 11.8 11.4 8.0 4.4 1 5.4 8.5 9.3 6.5 3.5 2 2.0 4.0 4.0 2.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Crusaders FC down, Larne across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 Premiership matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

19 previous meetings, 2.47 goals a meeting; 8 of 19 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Crusaders FC at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Larne away: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.84 goals for Crusaders FC, 2.11 for Larne. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

19 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.47

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 19

~~Both scored~~9 of 19

~~Last meetings~~CRU 2–4 LAR · CRU 0–1 LAR · LAR 4–0 CRU · CRU 2–2 LAR

Form · last six in Premiership

CRUSADERS FC

LLWLWL1–4 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–4

LARNE

DWWWWW0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 5–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Coleraine FC	10	+12	25
2	Linfield	9	+6	22
3	Glentoran	11	+5	17
4	Larne	6	+9	16
5	Crusaders FC	10	−3	15
6	Carrick Rangers	10	0	13
7	Dungannon Swifts	9	−1	13
8	Ballymena United	9	+2	12
9	Cliftonville FC	10	0	12
10	Limavady United	9	−6	9
11	Bangor	10	−12	5
12	Portadown	11	−12	5