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Crusaders FC v Coleraine FC

Crusaders FC

0–5Full time

Coleraine FC

Premiership · SAT 24 OCT · Seaview

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Crusaders FC 0–5 Coleraine FC COLERAINE FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Coleraine FC win~~63%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.203

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.098

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Coleraine FC win at 63%.
2′Much as we predicted: Coleraine FC was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 19–18–63
2′KICK-OFF Crusaders FC v Coleraine FC
11′A red card for Crusaders FC on 11′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 20–20–61
11′🟥 RED CARD · 11' Crusaders FC
20′Coleraine FC score on 19′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–13–80
20′We published Coleraine FC at 63%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 7–13–80
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Crusaders FC 0–1 Coleraine FC
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Coleraine FC win: 63% at kick-off, 80% now
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Coleraine FC
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 0–1 · 6–14–80
32′Coleraine FC find the net on 31′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
32′We published Coleraine FC at 63%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Crusaders FC 0–2 Coleraine FC
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Coleraine FC win: 63% at kick-off, 94% now
33′Coleraine FC ahead on 30′ through S. Devine. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–94
38′We published Coleraine FC at 63%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
41′A goal for Coleraine FC on 41′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Crusaders FC 0–3 Coleraine FC
45′HALF-TIME Crusaders FC 0–3 Coleraine FC
46′SECOND HALF Crusaders FC 0–3 Coleraine FC
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Coleraine FC · On: J. Henderson · Off: B. Doherty
53′Coleraine FC score on 53′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
53′We published Coleraine FC at 63%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
53′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Crusaders FC 0–4 Coleraine FC
55′52′: J. Blaney puts it into the Crusaders FC net, and it is 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Coleraine FC · On: L. Kane · Off: F. Tonks
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Coleraine FC · On: A. Brooks · Off: M. Shevlin
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Coleraine FC · On: J. Thomson · Off: R. McDonald
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Crusaders FC · On: J. Williamson · Off: H. Jewitt-White
63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Crusaders FC · On: K. Bond · Off: A. Reid
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Crusaders FC
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Coleraine FC · On: L. McGregor · Off: J. Cooper
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Crusaders FC · On: M. Harris · Off: E. Dunlop
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Crusaders FC · On: O. Peoples · Off: O. Wardell
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Crusaders FC
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Crusaders FC · On: S. MacLeod · Off: J. Doherty
87′Coleraine FC find the net on 86′. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
87′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Crusaders FC 0–5 Coleraine FC
FTFULL TIME Crusaders FC 0–5 Coleraine FC
FTCrusaders FC 0–5 Coleraine FC · Coleraine FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Coleraine FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Crusaders FC 19%, draw 17%, Coleraine FC 63%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Crusaders FC v Coleraine FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Crusaders FC win19%

Draw17%

Coleraine FC win63%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueSeaview

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Crusaders FC

Coleraine FC

3Days since last match8

Last match: 21 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

Last match: 16 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Coleraine FC	12	+14	31
7	Crusaders FC	12	−7	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · coleraine fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

63% The market75%

Us63%

~~Market~~75%

We make Coleraine FC a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Crusaders FC v Coleraine FC~~1.20 – 2.38

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 31~~7 v 2

~~The market · Coleraine FC win~~75% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Coleraine FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Crusaders FC win	19%	10%	+9
Draw	17%	16%	+1
Coleraine FC win	63%	75%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	68%	65%	+3
Both teams to score	61%	50%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	47%	45%	+2
Crusaders FC or draw	37%	25%	+12
Crusaders FC clean sheet	10%	–	–
Coleraine FC clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.1%

0123450 2.5 7.4 7.8 6.1 3.7 1 4.3 7.5 9.1 7.0 4.2 2.12 2.2 4.9 5.4 4.2 2.5 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Crusaders FC down, Coleraine FC across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,235 Premiership matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Crusaders FC at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Coleraine FC away: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Crusaders FC, 2.38 for Coleraine FC. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COL 4–1 CRU · COL 5–1 CRU · COL 4–0 CRU · CRU 0–2 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept

CRUSADERS FC

WLWLLL3–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 1–2

COLERAINE FC

WWLWWW2–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Linfield	13	+10	32
2	Coleraine FC	12	+14	31
3	Glentoran	12	+6	20
4	Larne	9	+10	19
5	Carrick Rangers	12	+2	17
6	Ballymena United	11	+2	15
7	Crusaders FC	12	−7	15
8	Dungannon Swifts	11	−3	14
9	Cliftonville FC	12	−2	12
10	Limavady United	11	−6	12
11	Portadown	13	−12	8
12	Bangor	12	−14	6