Coleraine FC v Glentoran prediction · Premiership

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Coleraine FCDrawGlentoran

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Coleraine FC 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Coleraine FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Coleraine FC 45%, draw 23%, Glentoran 32%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Coleraine FC v GlentoranBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Coleraine FC win45%

Draw23%

Glentoran win32%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

VenueThe Showgrounds

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Coleraine FC

Glentoran

6Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

Last match: 17 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Coleraine FC	12	+14	31
3	Glentoran	12	+6	20

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Ferguson's first game as Glentoran boss postponedBBC Sport · 24 Oct 12:14 · Glentoran

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · coleraine fc winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Coleraine FC a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Coleraine FC v Glentoran~~1.57 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 31 v 20~~2 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coleraine FC win	45%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Glentoran win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Coleraine FC or draw	68%	–	–
Coleraine FC clean sheet	29%	–	–
Glentoran clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.3 8.5 4.8 2.0 1 10.2 10.6 7.2 3.1 2 7.2 8.9 5.6 2.4 3 3.8 4.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coleraine FC down, Glentoran across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,235 Premiership matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coleraine FC at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Glentoran away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Coleraine FC, 1.26 for Glentoran. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~GLE 1–2 COL · COL 6–2 GLE · GLE 1–1 COL · GLE 1–1 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept

COLERAINE FC

WLWWWW1–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 5–0

GLENTORAN

LWWWDW1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Linfield	13	+10	32
2	Coleraine FC	12	+14	31
3	Glentoran	12	+6	20
4	Larne	9	+10	19
5	Carrick Rangers	12	+2	17
6	Ballymena United	11	+2	15
7	Crusaders FC	12	−7	15
8	Dungannon Swifts	11	−3	14
9	Cliftonville FC	12	−2	12
10	Limavady United	11	−6	12
11	Portadown	13	−12	8
12	Bangor	12	−14	6