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Coleraine FC v Cliftonville FC

Coleraine FC

1–0Full time

Cliftonville FC

Premiership · SAT 10 OCT · The Showgrounds

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Coleraine FC 1–0 Cliftonville FC COLERAINE FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Coleraine FC win~~59%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.252

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.146

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Coleraine FC win at 59%.
14′Coleraine FC ahead on 13′ through M. Shevlin. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–13–7
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Coleraine FC win: 59% at kick-off, 79% now
23′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Cliftonville FC
35′We published Coleraine FC at 59%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–6
38′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Coleraine FC
45′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Cliftonville FC
45′HALF-TIME Coleraine FC 1–0 Cliftonville FC
46′SECOND HALF Coleraine FC 1–0 Cliftonville FC
50′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Coleraine FC
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Coleraine FC
59′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Coleraine FC · On: L. Kane · Off: R. Slevin
69′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Cliftonville FC · On: L. Conlan · Off: O. Samuels
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Coleraine FC
74′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Coleraine FC
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Cliftonville FC · On: J. Sheridan · Off: R. Campbell
75′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Coleraine FC
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Coleraine FC · On: L. Ives · Off: D. Boyle
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cliftonville FC · On: J. Gormley · Off: B. Healy
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Coleraine FC · On: L. Ives · Off: D. Boyle
FTFULL TIME Coleraine FC 1–0 Cliftonville FC
FTColeraine FC 1–0 Cliftonville FC · Coleraine FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Coleraine FC win59%

Draw19%

Cliftonville FC win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · The Showgrounds

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Coleraine FC

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Webb

16 A. Wilson

5 C. Stewart

19 R. Slevin

23 B. Doherty

8 W. Patching

4 D. Boyle

42 J. Thomson

11 J. Cooper

17 J. Henderson

9 M. Shevlin

Coach · Ruaidhri Higgins

Substitutes

1 · R. Schofield

2 · L. Kane

7 · L. McGregor

15 · L. Ives

18 · A. Brooks

20 · S. Devine

22 · B. Wylie

Cliftonville FC

Formation not confirmed

31 P. Morrison

3 O. Samuels

6 H. Wilson

7 R. Campbell

8 R. Hale

10 B. Healy

12 S. Leppard

15 K. McClelland

16 D. McMaster

20 B. Quinn

25 A. Bannon

Coach · Jim Magilton

Substitutes

1 · L. Ridd

4 · D. O’Connor

14 · L. Conlan

19 · J. Gormley

27 · L. McStravick

41 · J. Sheridan

43 · C. Murray

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Coleraine FC

Formation not confirmed

12 L. Webb

16 A. Wilson

5 C. Stewart

19 R. Slevin

23 B. Doherty

8 W. Patching

4 D. Boyle

42 J. Thomson

11 J. Cooper

17 J. Henderson

9 M. Shevlin

Coach · Ruaidhri Higgins

Substitutes

1 · R. Schofield

2 · L. Kane

7 · L. McGregor

15 · L. Ives

18 · A. Brooks

20 · S. Devine

22 · B. Wylie

Cliftonville FC

Formation not confirmed

31 P. Morrison

3 O. Samuels

6 H. Wilson

7 R. Campbell

8 R. Hale

10 B. Healy

12 S. Leppard

15 K. McClelland

16 D. McMaster

20 B. Quinn

25 A. Bannon

Coach · Jim Magilton

Substitutes

1 · L. Ridd

4 · D. O’Connor

14 · L. Conlan

19 · J. Gormley

27 · L. McStravick

41 · J. Sheridan

43 · C. Murray

Our number · coleraine fc winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

59% The market69%

Us59%

~~Market~~69%

We make Coleraine FC a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · coleraine fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 68% to 69% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Coleraine FC win	59%	69%	−10
Draw	19%	19%	+1
Cliftonville FC win	22%	12%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	62%	60%	+2
Both teams to score	58%	51%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	39%	0
Coleraine FC or draw	78%	88%	−9
Coleraine FC clean sheet	33%	–	–
Cliftonville FC clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 5.6 2.8 1 9.2 8.7 5.4 2.1 2 8.5 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 5.9 6.5 3.6 4 3.2 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Coleraine FC down, Cliftonville FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,222 Premiership matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.9% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

21 previous meetings, 3.10 goals a meeting; 14 of 21 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Coleraine FC at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Cliftonville FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Coleraine FC, 1.14 for Cliftonville FC. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

21 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~14 of 21

~~Both scored~~13 of 21

~~Last meetings~~COL 6–2 CLI · COL 1–0 CLI · CLI 1–0 COL · CLI 0–0 COL

Form · last six in Premiership

COLERAINE FC

WWWWLW4–1 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–2

CLIFTONVILLE FC

WWLLLL3–1 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Coleraine FC	10	+12	25
2	Linfield	9	+6	22
3	Glentoran	11	+5	17
4	Larne	6	+9	16
5	Crusaders FC	10	−3	15
6	Carrick Rangers	10	0	13
7	Dungannon Swifts	9	−1	13
8	Ballymena United	9	+2	12
9	Cliftonville FC	10	0	12
10	Limavady United	9	−6	9
11	Bangor	10	−12	5
12	Portadown	11	−12	5