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Model 1.2

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Cliftonville FC v Portadown

Cliftonville FC
1–2Full time
Portadown

Premiership · SAT 17 OCT · Solitude

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:34
Cliftonville FC 1–2 Portadown CLIFTONVILLE FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Cliftonville FC win58%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.000
The market’s Brier score0.932

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cliftonville FC win at 58%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Cliftonville FC 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–21–21
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Cliftonville FC v Portadown
  4. 10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Cliftonville FC
  5. 31′Portadown find the net on 30′. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–27–50
  6. 31′We said Cliftonville FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–27–50
  7. 31′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 22–27–50
  8. 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Cliftonville FC 0–1 Portadown
  9. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Cliftonville FC win: 58% at kick-off, 22% now
  10. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Portadown win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Cliftonville FC win 22%)
  11. 38′We said Cliftonville FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–53
  12. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Cliftonville FC win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Cliftonville FC 0–1 Portadown
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Cliftonville FC 0–1 Portadown
  15. 50′We said Cliftonville FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–58
  16. 54′We said Cliftonville FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 40–42–18
  17. 55′A goal for Cliftonville FC on 54′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 39–43–18
  18. 55′We said Cliftonville FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–43–18
  19. 55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Cliftonville FC 1–1 Portadown
  20. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Cliftonville FC win: 58% at kick-off, 39% now
  21. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Portadown win 18%)
  22. 62′We said Cliftonville FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–49–16
  23. 63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Portadown
  24. 69′We said Cliftonville FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–57–14
  25. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Portadown · On: E. Fyfe · Off: S. O'Mahoney
  26. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Cliftonville FC win: 58% at kick-off, 27% now
  27. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Portadown
  28. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Portadown · On: A. Towe · Off: F. Flanagan
  29. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Cliftonville FC · On: J. Gormley · Off: L. McStravick
  30. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Cliftonville FC win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
  31. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Cliftonville FC · On: L. Conlan · Off: O. Samuels
  32. 86′We said Cliftonville FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
  33. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Cliftonville FC win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
  34. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Cliftonville FC · On: K. Hawthorne · Off: B. Quinn
  35. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Portadown · On: C. Falls · Off: L. Chapman
  36. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Portadown · On: J. Scott · Off: B. Kennedy
  37. 92′We said Cliftonville FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  38. 93′Portadown score on 90′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–97
  39. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Cliftonville FC 1–2 Portadown
  40. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Portadown win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
  41. 94′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 0–2–98
  42. FTFULL TIME Cliftonville FC 1–2 Portadown
  43. FTCliftonville FC 1–2 Portadown · Cliftonville FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cliftonville FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cliftonville FC 58%, draw 21%, Portadown 21%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Cliftonville FC v PortadownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cliftonville FC win58%
Draw21%
Portadown win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueSolitude

Line-ups

Cliftonville FC

Portadown

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cliftonville FC

Portadown

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

Last match: 9 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
9Cliftonville FC11−112
11Portadown11−125

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cliftonville FC

Formation not confirmed

31 P. Morrison

2 A. Wightman

3 O. Samuels

6 H. Wilson

8 R. Hale

10 B. Healy

12 S. Leppard

16 D. McMaster

20 B. Quinn

25 A. Bannon

27 L. McStravick

Coach · Jim Magilton

Substitutes

22 · J. Cremen Cowan

14 · L. Conlan

15 · K. McClelland

17 · J. Thompson

19 · J. Gormley

36 · K. Hawthorne

41 · J. Sheridan

Portadown

Formation not confirmed

1 A. McCarey

2 D. Isamala

3 M. Carson

4 B. Altintop

7 L. Chapman

17 S. O'Mahoney

19 J. Teelan

23 M. Hewitt

26 G. Thompson

28 B. Kennedy

34 F. Flanagan

Coach · David Jeffrey

Substitutes

6 · R. Minzamba

8 · A. Towe

9 · C. Falls

10 · E. Fyfe

11 · L. Jessop

14 · B. Wells

22 · J. Scott

Our number · cliftonville fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
58% The market53%
Us58%
Market53%

We make Cliftonville FC a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Cliftonville FC v Portadown1.82 – 0.98
Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 12 SeptW1 D0 L5 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 12 v 59 v 11
The market · Cliftonville FC win53% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 16:52
Our probability · Cliftonville FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Cliftonville FC win58%53%+5
Draw21%24%−3
Portadown win21%23%−2
Over 2.5 goals53%58%−5
Both teams to score51%58%−7
Over 1.5 goals75%79%−4
Over 3.5 goals31%37%−6
Cliftonville FC or draw79%77%+2
Cliftonville FC clean sheet38%––
Portadown clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.1%
0123450 5.5 7.0 3.0 1 12.1 9.9 5.2 2 10.0 9.6 4.7 3 6.1 5.8 2.8 4 2.8 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Cliftonville FC down, Portadown across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.80
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsCLI 3–1 POR · POR 0–2 CLI · POR 2–3 CLI · CLI 1–2 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 12 Sept

CLIFTONVILLE FC

WLLLLL3–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1

PORTADOWN

LDLLWD0–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Coleraine FC12+1431
2Linfield10+825
3Larne8+1119
4Glentoran11+517
5Carrick Rangers11+216
6Crusaders FC11−615
7Dungannon Swifts10−313
8Ballymena United10+112
9Cliftonville FC11−112
10Limavady United10−512
11Portadown11−125
12Bangor11−145

The competition's standings before kick-off.