Carrick Rangers v Limavady United prediction · Premiership

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Carrick Rangers 1–1 Limavady United CARRICK RANGERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Carrick Rangers win~~54%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.993

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.019

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Carrick Rangers win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Carrick Rangers 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–21–25
1′KICK-OFF Carrick Rangers v Limavady United
8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Carrick Rangers
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Limavady United
28′P. Heatley scores for Carrick Rangers on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
28′We said Carrick Rangers at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–16–8
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Carrick Rangers 1–0 Limavady United · P. Heatley
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Carrick Rangers win: 54% at kick-off, 76% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 76–16–8
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Carrick Rangers
45′HALF-TIME Carrick Rangers 1–0 Limavady United
46′SECOND HALF Carrick Rangers 1–0 Limavady United
57′We said Carrick Rangers at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Carrick Rangers
68′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Limavady United · On: A. Jarvis · Off: S. Lowry
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Limavady United · On: A. Gaston · Off: S. O'Donnell
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Limavady United
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Carrick Rangers win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
72′We said Carrick Rangers at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
77′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Limavady United · On: O. Duffy · Off: J. Butcher
80′We said Carrick Rangers at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Carrick Rangers win: 54% at kick-off, 94% now
87′We said Carrick Rangers at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
94′Limavady United score on 90′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
94′We said Carrick Rangers at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–97–1
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Carrick Rangers 1–1 Limavady United
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Carrick Rangers win: 54% at kick-off, 2% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Carrick Rangers win 98%)
FTFULL TIME Carrick Rangers 1–1 Limavady United
FTCarrick Rangers 1–1 Limavady United · Carrick Rangers win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Carrick Rangers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Carrick Rangers 54%, draw 20%, Limavady United 25%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Carrick Rangers v Limavady UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Carrick Rangers win54%

Draw20%

Limavady United win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueTaylors Avenue

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Carrick Rangers

Limavady United

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Carrick Rangers	12	+2	17
10	Limavady United	11	−6	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · carrick rangers winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

54% The market60%

Us54%

~~Market~~60%

We make Carrick Rangers a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Carrick Rangers v Limavady United~~1.92 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 12~~5 v 10

~~The market · Carrick Rangers win~~60% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Carrick Rangers win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Carrick Rangers win	54%	60%	−6
Draw	20%	21%	−1
Limavady United win	25%	19%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	59%	64%	−5
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	44%	−6
Carrick Rangers or draw	75%	81%	−6
Carrick Rangers clean sheet	31%	–	–
Limavady United clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 9.4%

0123450 4.0 6.4 3.4 1 9.4 9.3 6.0 2.5 2 8.0 9.2 5.5 2.2 3 5.2 5.9 3.4 4 2.6 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Carrick Rangers down, Limavady United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,235 Premiership matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Carrick Rangers at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Limavady United away: 0.60 scored, 1.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for Carrick Rangers, 1.19 for Limavady United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LIM 1–2 CAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 15 Sept

CARRICK RANGERS

DLLWWD1–1 · 2–5 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 4–2 · 2–2

LIMAVADY UNITED

WLWLWL3–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Linfield	13	+10	32
2	Coleraine FC	12	+14	31
3	Glentoran	12	+6	20
4	Larne	9	+10	19
5	Carrick Rangers	12	+2	17
6	Ballymena United	11	+2	15
7	Crusaders FC	12	−7	15
8	Dungannon Swifts	11	−3	14
9	Cliftonville FC	12	−2	12
10	Limavady United	11	−6	12
11	Portadown	13	−12	8
12	Bangor	12	−14	6