Home › Football › Premiership › Bangor v Larne

Bangor v Larne

Bangor

1–2Full time

Larne

Premiership · SAT 24 OCT · Clandeboye Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:46

Bangor 1–2 Larne LARNE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Larne win~~70%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.132

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.149

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Larne win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Larne was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 12–18–70
1′KICK-OFF Bangor v Larne
5′PENALTY MISSED · 4' Bangor
21′Bangor find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 36–28–36
21′We said Larne at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–0 · 36–28–36
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Bangor 1–0 Larne
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Larne win: 70% at kick-off, 36% now
25′We said Larne at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 37–29–34
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' Bangor win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Larne win 65%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 39–29–31
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Larne win: 70% at kick-off, 30% now
34′We said Larne at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 41–30–29
43′We said Larne at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 45–31–24
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Bangor
45′HALF-TIME Bangor 1–0 Larne
46′SECOND HALF Bangor 1–0 Larne
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Larne · On: P. O'Neill · Off: M. Gibson
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Larne win: 70% at kick-off, 20% now
51′We said Larne at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 50–31–19
59′We said Larne at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 56–30–14
59′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Larne · On: R. Doherty · Off: J. Simpson
63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Bangor · On: J. O'Mahony · Off: R. Neale
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Larne win: 70% at kick-off, 10% now
67′We said Larne at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 64–27–9
70′P. O'Neill scores for Larne on 68′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 9–58–33
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Larne · On: C. McKendry · Off: K. O'Hara
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Larne · On: J. McEneff · Off: M. Randall
70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Larne · On: S. Graham · Off: L. Millar
70′⚽ GOAL · 68' Bangor 1–1 Larne · P. O'Neill
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Larne win: 70% at kick-off, 33% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Bangor win 65%)
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bangor · On: L. McRoberts · Off: I. Hughes
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Bangor · On: M. Strachan · Off: T. Mulvenna
79′Larne score on 79′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Bangor 1–2 Larne
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Larne win: 70% at kick-off, 94% now
79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Larne win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 71%)
81′We published Larne at 70%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Bangor · On: O. Devlin · Off: L. Harrison
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Bangor · On: B. Cushnie · Off: L. Hassin
FTFULL TIME Bangor 1–2 Larne
FTBangor 1–2 Larne · Larne win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Larne are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bangor 12%, draw 18%, Larne 70%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Bangor v LarneBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bangor win12%

Draw18%

Larne win70%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueClandeboye Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bangor

Larne

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Larne	9	+10	19
12	Bangor	12	−14	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · larne winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 22 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

70% The market69%

Us70%

~~Market~~69%

We make Larne a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.7–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bangor v Larne~~0.68 – 2.12

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 19~~12 v 4

~~The market · Larne win~~69% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Larne win The market, margin stripped

Published at 71%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bangor win	12%	12%	0
Draw	18%	19%	−1
Larne win	70%	69%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Both teams to score	42%	48%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
Bangor or draw	30%	31%	−1
Bangor clean sheet	13%	–	–
Larne clean sheet	51%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.6%

0123450 5.8 13.6 13.4 9.4 5.1 2.31 5.0 8.1 8.9 6.2 3.3 2 3.1 3.1 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bangor down, Larne across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,235 Premiership matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.3% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bangor at home: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Larne away: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.68 goals for Bangor, 2.12 for Larne. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~LAR 1–0 BAN · LAR 2–1 BAN · LAR 2–1 BAN · LAR 1–1 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 12 Sept

BANGOR

LWLLLD1–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 0–0

LARNE

WWWWLL2–0 · 2–0 · 5–2 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Linfield	13	+10	32
2	Coleraine FC	12	+14	31
3	Glentoran	12	+6	20
4	Larne	9	+10	19
5	Carrick Rangers	12	+2	17
6	Ballymena United	11	+2	15
7	Crusaders FC	12	−7	15
8	Dungannon Swifts	11	−3	14
9	Cliftonville FC	12	−2	12
10	Limavady United	11	−6	12
11	Portadown	13	−12	8
12	Bangor	12	−14	6