Bangor v Dungannon Swifts prediction · Premiership

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Bangor 0–0 Dungannon Swifts DUNGANNON SWIFTS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dungannon Swifts win~~41%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.902

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.864

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dungannon Swifts win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dungannon Swifts 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 37–23–41
1′KICK-OFF Bangor v Dungannon Swifts
7′Little has changed for our model: Dungannon Swifts 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 36–24–40
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Bangor
45′HALF-TIME Bangor 0–0 Dungannon Swifts
46′SECOND HALF Bangor 0–0 Dungannon Swifts
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Dungannon Swifts win 32%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Dungannon Swifts win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 27–43–30
56′We said Dungannon Swifts at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 27–44–29
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Dungannon Swifts
67′We said Dungannon Swifts at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Dungannon Swifts win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
73′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Dungannon Swifts · On: S. Gordon · Off: K. Dillon
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Dungannon Swifts · On: S. Scott · Off: L. Alves
74′We said Dungannon Swifts at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
79′We said Dungannon Swifts at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–72–14
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bangor · On: O. Devlin · Off: L. Harrison
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bangor · On: J. O'Mahony · Off: A. Mitchell
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Bangor · On: B. Cushnie · Off: I. Hughes
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Dungannon Swifts win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
84′We said Dungannon Swifts at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Dungannon Swifts
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Dungannon Swifts · On: A. Mitchell · Off: J. Glackin
91′We said Dungannon Swifts at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Bangor 0–0 Dungannon Swifts
FTBangor 0–0 Dungannon Swifts · Dungannon Swifts win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dungannon Swifts just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Bangor 37%, draw 23%, Dungannon Swifts 41%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Bangor v Dungannon SwiftsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bangor win37%

Draw23%

Dungannon Swifts win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueClandeboye Park

Line-ups

Bangor

Dungannon Swifts

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bangor

Dungannon Swifts

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Dungannon Swifts	10	−3	13
12	Bangor	11	−14	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bangor

Formation not confirmed

13 P. Solis Grogan

2 C. McGuinness

3 R. Neale

4 L. Francis

6 L. Harrison

7 L. Hassin

8 T. Mulvenna

9 B. Arthurs

12 S. McCullough

16 A. Mitchell

29 I. Hughes

Coach · Lee Feeney

Substitutes

27 · L. McMahon

10 · B. Cushnie

15 · J. O'Mahony

18 · O. Devlin

21 · J. Boyd

23 · M. Strachan

28 · S. McGuinness

Dungannon Swifts

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Dunne

3 J. Scott

5 B. McKeown

6 T. Kelly

10 K. Dillon

13 L. Alves

14 A. Glenny

17 J. Glackin

21 P. Doyle

40 J. Ogedi-Uzokwe

67 S. McAllister

Coach · Rodney McAree

Substitutes

12 · A. Henderson

2 · C. McGinty

7 · C. Smith

8 · S. Scott

9 · A. Mitchell

16 · S. Gordon

23 · D. Wallace

Our number · dungannon swifts winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market49%

Us41%

~~Market~~49%

We make Dungannon Swifts a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bangor v Dungannon Swifts~~1.43 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 5 v 13~~12 v 7

~~The market · Dungannon Swifts win~~49% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dungannon Swifts win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bangor win	37%	26%	+11
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Dungannon Swifts win	41%	49%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	58%	56%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Bangor or draw	59%	51%	+8
Bangor clean sheet	22%	–	–
Dungannon Swifts clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.5 9.0 6.1 3.1 1 8.5 10.3 8.4 4.3 2 5.4 7.9 6.0 3.0 3 2.6 3.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bangor down, Dungannon Swifts across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,228 Premiership matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bangor at home: 1.50 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dungannon Swifts away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Bangor, 1.52 for Dungannon Swifts. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DUN 2–0 BAN · DUN 0–1 BAN · DUN 1–0 BAN · BAN 2–1 DUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 5 Sept

BANGOR

DLWLLL1–1 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 2–3 · 0–2

DUNGANNON SWIFTS

WLLDLL2–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Coleraine FC	12	+14	31
2	Linfield	10	+8	25
3	Larne	8	+11	19
4	Glentoran	11	+5	17
5	Carrick Rangers	11	+2	16
6	Crusaders FC	11	−6	15
7	Dungannon Swifts	10	−3	13
8	Ballymena United	10	+1	12
9	Cliftonville FC	11	−1	12
10	Limavady United	10	−5	12
11	Portadown	11	−12	5
12	Bangor	11	−14	5