Ballymena United v Crusaders FC prediction · Premiership

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Ballymena United 2–1 Crusaders FC BALLYMENA UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ballymena United win~~47%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.419

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.281

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ballymena United win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ballymena United was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–22–31
1′KICK-OFF Ballymena United v Crusaders FC
1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Ballymena United 0–1 Crusaders FC
1′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 1' Ballymena United win: 47% at kick-off, 25% now
1′THE CALL SWINGS · 1' Crusaders FC win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Ballymena United win 25%)
2′Crusaders FC find the net on 1′. 0–1. 0–1 · 25–22–53
2′We said Ballymena United at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–22–53
3′We said Ballymena United at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–22–53
8′Crusaders FC find the net on 1′. 0–1. 0–1 · 23–23–54
9′We said Ballymena United at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–23–54
13′A goal for Ballymena United on 12′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 45–24–30
13′Much as we predicted: Ballymena United was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 1–1 · 45–24–30
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Ballymena United 1–1 Crusaders FC
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Ballymena United win: 47% at kick-off, 45% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Ballymena United win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Crusaders FC win 30%)
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Ballymena United
45′HALF-TIME Ballymena United 1–1 Crusaders FC
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Ballymena United win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
46′SECOND HALF Ballymena United 1–1 Crusaders FC
48′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 37–37–26
52′We said Ballymena United at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–40–25
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ballymena United win 35%)
54′We said Ballymena United at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–41–25
55′Ballymena United score on 55′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 76–19–6
55′We published Ballymena United at 47%. Our model now makes it 76%. 2–1 · 76–19–6
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ballymena United 2–1 Crusaders FC
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Ballymena United win: 47% at kick-off, 76% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Ballymena United win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Ballymena United win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Crusaders FC
66′We published Ballymena United at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Crusaders FC · On: E. Dunlop · Off: A. Reid
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Ballymena United
67′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Crusaders FC · On: O. Wardell · Off: J. Doherty
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Crusaders FC
75′We published Ballymena United at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
77′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Crusaders FC · On: L. Anderson · Off: D. Rocks
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Crusaders FC · On: K. Bond · Off: T. Maguire
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Ballymena United win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Ballymena United
82′We published Ballymena United at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ballymena United · On: D. McCallion · Off: J. Hood
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ballymena United · On: S. Murray · Off: S. Whiteside
88′We published Ballymena United at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Crusaders FC
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Ballymena United win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
FTFULL TIME Ballymena United 2–1 Crusaders FC
FTBallymena United 2–1 Crusaders FC · Ballymena United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ballymena United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ballymena United 47%, draw 22%, Crusaders FC 31%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Ballymena United v Crusaders FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ballymena United win47%

Draw22%

Crusaders FC win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBallymena Showgrounds

Line-ups

Ballymena United

Crusaders FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ballymena United

Crusaders FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Crusaders FC	11	−6	15
8	Ballymena United	10	+1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ballymena United

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Walsh

2 D. Toure

5 S. Whiteside

6 F. Sule

8 J. Archer

9 I. Rutkowski

10 C. Allen

21 J. Hood

24 C. McConnell

25 L. O'Sullivan

26 K. Lyons-Foster

Coach · Oran Kearney

Substitutes

23 · D. Breen

15 · D. McCallion

17 · M. Leetch

18 · S. Murray

20 · S. Fallon

32 · C. Burns

34 · C. McManus

Crusaders FC

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Callister

2 K. Forsythe

4 J. Blaney

5 S. Rough

6 R. Weir

8 H. Jewitt-White

12 J. Doherty

14 D. Rocks

18 A. Reid

22 R. McKay

27 T. Maguire

Coach · Declan Caddell

Substitutes

31 · R. Brown

3 · G. Kelly

11 · E. Dunlop

15 · O. Wardell

17 · K. Bond

23 · O. McCart

42 · L. Anderson

Our number · ballymena united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

47% The market57%

Us47%

~~Market~~57%

We make Ballymena United a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ballymena United v Crusaders FC~~1.72 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 15~~8 v 6

~~The market · Ballymena United win~~57% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ballymena United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ballymena United win	47%	57%	−10
Draw	22%	22%	0
Crusaders FC win	31%	21%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	58%	61%	−3
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	41%	−5
Ballymena United or draw	69%	79%	−10
Ballymena United clean sheet	27%	–	–
Crusaders FC clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.1 7.4 4.3 1 9.1 9.8 7.1 3.2 2 7.0 9.0 5.9 2.7 3 4.0 5.2 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ballymena United down, Crusaders FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,228 Premiership matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.4% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ballymena United at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Crusaders FC away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Ballymena United, 1.33 for Crusaders FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CRU 2–1 BAL · CRU 3–2 BAL · BAL 2–0 CRU · BAL 2–2 CRU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premiership this season · since 11 Sept

BALLYMENA UNITED

LDDWWL2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–3

CRUSADERS FC

LWLWLL1–2 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–4 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Coleraine FC	12	+14	31
2	Linfield	10	+8	25
3	Larne	8	+11	19
4	Glentoran	11	+5	17
5	Carrick Rangers	11	+2	16
6	Crusaders FC	11	−6	15
7	Dungannon Swifts	10	−3	13
8	Ballymena United	10	+1	12
9	Cliftonville FC	11	−1	12
10	Limavady United	10	−5	12
11	Portadown	11	−12	5
12	Bangor	11	−14	5