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Model 1.2

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Warrenpoint Town v Crusaders FC

Warrenpoint Town
5–2After extra time
Crusaders FC

League Cup · WED 21 OCT · Milltown

After 90 minutesGraded 21 Oct 22:30
Warrenpoint Town 2–2 Crusaders FC CRUSADERS FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Crusaders FC win58%
The market said66%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.978
The market’s Brier score1.099

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 2–2, the score after 90 minutes. It finished 5–2 after extra time.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay26 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Crusaders FC win at 58%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Crusaders FC 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 19–23–58
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Warrenpoint Town v Crusaders FC
  4. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Crusaders FC win: 58% at kick-off, 48% now
  5. 41′A goal for Warrenpoint Town on 41′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 53–28–19
  6. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Warrenpoint Town 1–0 Crusaders FC
  7. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Crusaders FC win: 58% at kick-off, 19% now
  8. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Warrenpoint Town win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Crusaders FC win 47%)
  9. 42′We said Crusaders FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 53–28–19
  10. 42′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 53–28–19
  11. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Crusaders FC win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Warrenpoint Town 1–0 Crusaders FC
  13. 46′SECOND HALF Warrenpoint Town 1–0 Crusaders FC
  14. 51′Crusaders FC are down to ten from 50′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 57–28–15
  15. 51′🟥 RED CARD · 50' Crusaders FC
  16. 52′We said Crusaders FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 58–28–14
  17. 60′Crusaders FC score on 60′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 17–46–37
  18. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Warrenpoint Town 1–1 Crusaders FC
  19. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Crusaders FC win: 58% at kick-off, 37% now
  20. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Warrenpoint Town win 63%)
  21. 61′We said Crusaders FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 16–47–37
  22. 62′Crusaders FC find the net on 62′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  23. 62′We said Crusaders FC at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  24. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Warrenpoint Town 1–2 Crusaders FC
  25. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Crusaders FC win: 58% at kick-off, 84% now
  26. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Crusaders FC win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 47%)
  27. 63′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  28. 65′We said Crusaders FC at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
  29. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Crusaders FC win: 58% at kick-off, 88% now
  30. 77′We said Crusaders FC at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
  31. 82′A goal for Warrenpoint Town on 82′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 7–78–15
  32. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Warrenpoint Town 2–2 Crusaders FC
  33. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Crusaders FC win: 58% at kick-off, 15% now
  34. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Crusaders FC win 93%)
  35. 83′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 7–81–13
  36. 88′We said Crusaders FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 2–2 · 4–88–8
  37. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Crusaders FC win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
  38. 92′We said Crusaders FC at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 2–94–4
  39. 96′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 92–6–1
  40. 103′Warrenpoint Town score on 90′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  41. 103′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  42. 103′⚽ GOAL · 90+13' Warrenpoint Town 3–2 Crusaders FC
  43. 103′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+13' Warrenpoint Town win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 97%)
  44. 107′GOAL DISALLOWED · 107' Warrenpoint Town
  45. 115′Warrenpoint Town find the net on 115′. 4–2. 4–2 · 99–1–0
  46. 115′⚽ GOAL · 115' Warrenpoint Town 4–2 Crusaders FC
  47. 117′A goal for Warrenpoint Town on 117′ — 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  48. 117′⚽ GOAL · 117' Warrenpoint Town 5–2 Crusaders FC
  49. 118′7 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 5–2 · 100–0–0
  50. 149′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Warrenpoint Town likeliest at 98%. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  51. 152′94′: R. Powell on the scoresheet for Warrenpoint Town, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
  52. 153′Warrenpoint Town find the net on 95′. 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  53. 153′⚽ GOAL · 95' Warrenpoint Town 4–2 Crusaders FC
  54. FTFULL TIME Warrenpoint Town 5–2 Crusaders FC after extra time
  55. FTWarrenpoint Town 2–2 Crusaders FC after 90 minutes, as graded · Crusaders FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Crusaders FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Warrenpoint Town 19%, draw 23%, Crusaders FC 58%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Warrenpoint Town v Crusaders FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Warrenpoint Town win19%
Draw23%
Crusaders FC win58%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

VenueMilltown

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Warrenpoint Town

Crusaders FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

Last match: 17 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · crusaders fc winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 21 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
58% The market66%
Us58%
Market66%

We make Crusaders FC a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Warrenpoint Town v Crusaders FC1.01 – 1.93
The market · Crusaders FC win66% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65%70% 15 OCT 04:3321 OCT 19:14
Our probability · Crusaders FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Warrenpoint Town win19%15%+4
Draw23%20%+3
Crusaders FC win58%66%−8
Over 2.5 goals56%63%−7
Both teams to score55%56%−1
Over 1.5 goals79%81%−2
Over 3.5 goals34%43%−9
Warrenpoint Town or draw42%34%+8
Warrenpoint Town clean sheet15%––
Crusaders FC clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%
0123450 5.6 9.9 9.9 6.3 3.1 1 5.0 10.6 9.9 6.4 3.1 2 2.7 5.2 5.0 3.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Warrenpoint Town down, Crusaders FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.75
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsWAR 0–5 CRU · CRU 2–1 WAR · WAR 0–1 CRU · WAR 2–4 CRU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League Cup this season

WARRENPOINT TOWN

No matches in our record yet.

CRUSADERS FC

No matches in our record yet.