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Home › Football › League Cup › Strabane Athletic v Glenavon FC

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Strabane Athletic v Glenavon FC

Strabane Athletic
0–5Full time
Glenavon FC

League Cup · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
Strabane Athletic 0–5 Glenavon FC GLENAVON FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Glenavon FC win65%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.189
The market’s Brier score0.214

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Glenavon FC win at 65%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Glenavon FC was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 15–21–64
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Strabane Athletic v Glenavon FC
  4. 10′Glenavon FC find the net on 10′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–11–85
  5. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Strabane Athletic 0–1 Glenavon FC
  6. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Glenavon FC win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
  7. 11′We published Glenavon FC at 65%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 5–11–85
  8. 13′We published Glenavon FC at 65%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 5–11–84
  9. 25′A goal for Glenavon FC on 24′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
  10. 25′We published Glenavon FC at 65%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 1–3–96
  11. 25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Strabane Athletic 0–2 Glenavon FC
  12. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Glenavon FC win: 65% at kick-off, 96% now
  13. 30′Glenavon FC score on 29′ to make it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  14. 30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Strabane Athletic 0–3 Glenavon FC
  15. 43′We published Glenavon FC at 65%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Strabane Athletic 0–3 Glenavon FC
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Strabane Athletic 0–3 Glenavon FC
  18. 55′A red card for Strabane Athletic on 55′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  19. 55′🟥 RED CARD · 55' Strabane Athletic
  20. 56′PENALTY MISSED · 55' Glenavon FC
  21. 78′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–3 · 0–0–100
  22. 86′Glenavon FC find the net on 85′. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  23. 86′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
  24. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Strabane Athletic 0–4 Glenavon FC
  25. 90′A goal for Glenavon FC on 89′ — 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  26. 90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Strabane Athletic 0–5 Glenavon FC
  27. 91′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
  28. FTFULL TIME Strabane Athletic 0–5 Glenavon FC
  29. FTStrabane Athletic 0–5 Glenavon FC · Glenavon FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Glenavon FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Strabane Athletic 15%, draw 20%, Glenavon FC 65%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Strabane Athletic v Glenavon FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Strabane Athletic win15%
Draw20%
Glenavon FC win65%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Strabane Athletic

Glenavon FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

Last match: 16 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · glenavon fc winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 17 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
65% The market62%
Us65%
Market62%

We make Glenavon FC a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Strabane Athletic v Glenavon FC0.92 – 2.12
The market · Glenavon FC win62% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 19:15
Our probability · Glenavon FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 64%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Strabane Athletic win15%18%−3
Draw20%20%0
Glenavon FC win65%62%+3
Over 2.5 goals59%73%−14
Both teams to score53%67%−14
Over 1.5 goals81%87%−6
Over 3.5 goals36%53%−17
Strabane Athletic or draw35%38%−3
Strabane Athletic clean sheet12%––
Glenavon FC clean sheet40%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.8%
0123450 5.1 9.9 10.8 7.6 4.0 1 4.1 9.6 9.9 7.0 3.7 2 2.0 4.3 4.5 3.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Strabane Athletic down, Glenavon FC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26
Goals a meeting5.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsGLE 4–1 STR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League Cup this season

STRABANE ATHLETIC

No matches in our record yet.

GLENAVON FC

No matches in our record yet.