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Model 1.2

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Portadown v Cliftonville FC

Portadown
0–2Full time
Cliftonville FC

League Cup · TUE 20 OCT · Shamrock Park

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
Portadown 0–2 Cliftonville FC CLIFTONVILLE FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Cliftonville FC win46%
The market said41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.438
The market’s Brier score0.529

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Cliftonville FC win at 46%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Cliftonville FC was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 30–24–46
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Portadown v Cliftonville FC
  4. 42′A goal for Cliftonville FC on 42′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–74
  5. 42′We published Cliftonville FC at 46%. Our model now makes it 74%. 0–1 · 7–19–74
  6. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Portadown 0–1 Cliftonville FC
  7. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Cliftonville FC win: 46% at kick-off, 74% now
  8. 43′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–74
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Portadown 0–1 Cliftonville FC
  10. 46′We published Cliftonville FC at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Portadown 0–1 Cliftonville FC
  12. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Cliftonville FC win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
  13. 58′Cliftonville FC score on 57′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–96
  14. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Portadown 0–2 Cliftonville FC
  15. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Cliftonville FC win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
  16. 59′We published Cliftonville FC at 46%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 1–4–96
  17. 82′We published Cliftonville FC at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
  18. FTFULL TIME Portadown 0–2 Cliftonville FC
  19. FTPortadown 0–2 Cliftonville FC · Cliftonville FC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cliftonville FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Portadown 30%, draw 23%, Cliftonville FC 46%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Portadown v Cliftonville FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Portadown win30%
Draw23%
Cliftonville FC win46%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

VenueShamrock Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Portadown

Cliftonville FC

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

Last match: 17 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cliftonville fc winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
46% The market41%
Us46%
Market41%

We make Cliftonville FC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Portadown v Cliftonville FC1.18 – 1.53
The market · Cliftonville FC win41% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 19:15
Our probability · Cliftonville FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Portadown win30%34%−4
Draw23%26%−3
Cliftonville FC win46%41%+5
Over 2.5 goals50%61%−11
Both teams to score53%65%−12
Over 1.5 goals74%82%−8
Over 3.5 goals29%42%−13
Portadown or draw54%59%−5
Portadown clean sheet22%––
Cliftonville FC clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.2%
0123450 6.0 11.2 7.8 4.0 1 8.9 11.0 8.9 4.6 2 4.7 6.9 5.2 2.7 3 2.8 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Portadown down, Cliftonville FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.80
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsCLI 1–2 POR · CLI 3–1 POR · POR 0–2 CLI · POR 2–3 CLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League Cup this season

PORTADOWN

No matches in our record yet.

CLIFTONVILLE FC

No matches in our record yet.