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Model 1.2

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Newington Youth v Ballymena United

Newington Youth
1–3Full time
Ballymena United

League Cup · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
Newington Youth 1–3 Ballymena United BALLYMENA UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ballymena United win56%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.288
The market’s Brier score0.215

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ballymena United win at 56%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Ballymena United 56% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 23–21–56
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Newington Youth v Ballymena United
  4. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Ballymena United win: 56% at kick-off, 46% now
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Newington Youth 0–0 Ballymena United
  6. 46′SECOND HALF Newington Youth 0–0 Ballymena United
  7. 47′We said Ballymena United at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 22–34–44
  8. 49′Newington Youth find the net on 49′. 1–0. 1–0 · 56–27–17
  9. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Newington Youth 1–0 Ballymena United
  10. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Ballymena United win: 56% at kick-off, 17% now
  11. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Newington Youth win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Ballymena United win 44%)
  12. 50′We said Ballymena United at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 57–27–16
  13. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Ballymena United win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
  14. 51′A goal for Ballymena United on 51′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 22–36–43
  15. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Newington Youth 1–1 Ballymena United
  16. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Ballymena United win: 56% at kick-off, 43% now
  17. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Ballymena United win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Newington Youth win 57%)
  18. 52′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–1 · 21–36–42
  19. 58′We said Ballymena United at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 20–41–39
  20. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Ballymena United win 40%)
  21. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Ballymena United win: 56% at kick-off, 36% now
  22. 65′We said Ballymena United at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 19–47–34
  23. 71′We said Ballymena United at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 16–54–29
  24. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Ballymena United win: 56% at kick-off, 26% now
  25. 76′We said Ballymena United at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 14–62–24
  26. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Ballymena United win: 56% at kick-off, 16% now
  27. 83′We said Ballymena United at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 8–78–14
  28. 86′Ballymena United score on 85′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 0–6–94
  29. 86′We said Ballymena United at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–2 · 0–6–94
  30. 86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Newington Youth 1–2 Ballymena United
  31. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Ballymena United win: 56% at kick-off, 94% now
  32. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Ballymena United win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 82%)
  33. 88′We said Ballymena United at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  34. 90′Ballymena United find the net on 90′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  35. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Newington Youth 1–3 Ballymena United
  36. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Ballymena United win: 56% at kick-off, over 99% now
  37. 91′We said Ballymena United at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  38. 91′Ballymena United ahead on 89′ through S. Edogun. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  39. 92′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  40. FTFULL TIME Newington Youth 1–3 Ballymena United
  41. FTNewington Youth 1–3 Ballymena United · Ballymena United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ballymena United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newington Youth 23%, draw 21%, Ballymena United 56%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Newington Youth v Ballymena UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Newington Youth win23%
Draw21%
Ballymena United win56%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newington Youth

Ballymena United

4Days since last match3

Last match: 16 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

Last match: 17 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ballymena united winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
56% The market62%
Us56%
Market62%

We make Ballymena United a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Newington Youth v Ballymena United1.32 – 2.16
The market · Ballymena United win62% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 19:15
Our probability · Ballymena United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Newington Youth win23%18%+5
Draw21%19%+2
Ballymena United win56%62%−6
Over 2.5 goals68%61%+7
Both teams to score65%56%+9
Over 1.5 goals87%80%+7
Over 3.5 goals46%40%+6
Newington Youth or draw44%38%+6
Newington Youth clean sheet12%––
Ballymena United clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.5%
0123450 3.4 6.3 7.2 5.2 2.8 1 3.8 9.1 9.5 6.8 3.7 2 2.7 5.8 6.3 4.5 2.4 3 2.6 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Newington Youth down, Ballymena United across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsBAL 3–0 NEW · BAL 4–1 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League Cup this season

NEWINGTON YOUTH

No matches in our record yet.

BALLYMENA UNITED

No matches in our record yet.