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Model 1.2

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Institute v Loughgall

Institute
0–3Full time
Loughgall

League Cup · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
Institute 0–3 Loughgall INSTITUTE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Institute win44%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.749
The market’s Brier score0.742

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Institute win at 44%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Institute was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Institute v Loughgall
  4. 2′Loughgall score on 2′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 21–22–56
  5. 2′We said Institute at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–22–56
  6. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Institute 0–1 Loughgall
  7. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Institute win: 44% at kick-off, 21% now
  8. 2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Loughgall win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Institute win 44%)
  9. 11′We said Institute at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 15–24–61
  11. 32′We said Institute at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  12. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Institute win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
  13. 45′Loughgall find the net on 45′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–89
  14. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Institute 0–2 Loughgall
  15. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Institute win: 44% at kick-off, 2% now
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Institute 0–2 Loughgall
  17. 46′We said Institute at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–8–90
  18. 46′A goal for Loughgall on 46′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–2–98
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Institute 0–2 Loughgall
  20. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Institute 0–3 Loughgall
  21. 47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–2–98
  22. FTFULL TIME Institute 0–3 Loughgall
  23. FTInstitute 0–3 Loughgall · Institute win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Institute are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Institute 44%, draw 26%, Loughgall 30%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Institute v LoughgallBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Institute win44%
Draw26%
Loughgall win30%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Institute

Loughgall

4Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

Last match: 16 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · institute winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 17 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
44% The market44%
Us44%
Market44%

We make Institute a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Institute v Loughgall1.46 – 1.16
The market · Institute win44% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 19:15
Our probability · Institute win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Institute win44%44%0
Draw26%26%0
Loughgall win30%30%0
Over 2.5 goals49%55%−6
Both teams to score52%59%−7
Over 1.5 goals73%77%−4
Over 3.5 goals27%35%−8
Institute or draw70%70%0
Institute clean sheet32%––
Loughgall clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%
0123450 7.6 8.4 4.9 1 10.5 12.2 7.0 2.8 2 7.7 8.8 5.1 2.0 3 3.8 4.3 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Institute down, Loughgall across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsINS 0–0 LOU · LOU 1–3 INS · INS 2–0 LOU · LOU 2–1 INS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League Cup this season

INSTITUTE

No matches in our record yet.

LOUGHGALL

No matches in our record yet.