Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › League Cup › Dundela v Moyola Park

Back
Northern Ireland flag

Dundela v Moyola Park

Dundela
1–4Full time
Moyola Park

League Cup · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
Dundela 1–4 Moyola Park DUNDELA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dundela win45%
The market said43%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.721
The market’s Brier score0.703

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dundela win at 45%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Dundela 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–23–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dundela v Moyola Park
  4. 3′A goal for Dundela on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–17–15
  5. 3′We said Dundela at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–17–15
  6. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Dundela 1–0 Moyola Park
  7. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Dundela win: 45% at kick-off, 68% now
  8. 28′We said Dundela at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–12
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 70–19–11
  10. 32′Moyola Park score on 32′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 40–29–30
  11. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Dundela 1–1 Moyola Park
  12. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Dundela win: 45% at kick-off, 40% now
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Dundela 1–1 Moyola Park
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Dundela 1–1 Moyola Park
  15. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Dundela win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
  16. 54′Moyola Park find the net on 54′. 1–2. 1–2 · 11–24–66
  17. 54′We said Dundela at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 1–2 · 11–24–66
  18. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Dundela 1–2 Moyola Park
  19. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Dundela win: 45% at kick-off, 11% now
  20. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Moyola Park win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Dundela win 36%)
  21. 57′We said Dundela at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
  22. 59′A goal for Moyola Park on 59′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  23. 59′We said Dundela at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  24. 59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Dundela 1–3 Moyola Park
  25. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Dundela win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
  26. 60′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 2–7–92
  27. 89′Moyola Park score on 89′ to make it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  28. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Dundela 1–4 Moyola Park
  29. 90′5 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  30. FTFULL TIME Dundela 1–4 Moyola Park
  31. FTDundela 1–4 Moyola Park · Dundela win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dundela are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dundela 45%, draw 23%, Moyola Park 32%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Dundela v Moyola ParkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Dundela win45%
Draw23%
Moyola Park win32%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dundela

Moyola Park

3Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

Last match: 16 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dundela winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:24 · locked at kick-off
45% The market43%
Us45%
Market43%

We make Dundela a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dundela v Moyola Park1.85 – 1.53
The market · Dundela win43% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 19:15
Our probability · Dundela win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dundela win45%43%+2
Draw23%25%−2
Moyola Park win32%32%0
Over 2.5 goals65%59%+6
Both teams to score66%62%+4
Over 1.5 goals85%79%+6
Over 3.5 goals44%39%+5
Dundela or draw68%68%0
Dundela clean sheet22%––
Moyola Park clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%
0123450 3.7 4.9 4.0 2.0 1 6.0 10.0 7.4 3.8 2 5.8 8.9 6.8 3.5 3 3.6 5.5 4.2 2.1 4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dundela down, Moyola Park across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored1 of 1
Last meetingsDUN 2–2 MOY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League Cup this season

DUNDELA

No matches in our record yet.

MOYOLA PARK

No matches in our record yet.