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Carrick Rangers v Newry City AFC
Carrick RangersNewry City AFCLeague Cup · TUE 20 OCT · Loughview Leisure Arena
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Carrick Rangers win at 83%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Carrick Rangers was 83% before kick-off and our model makes it 83% now. 0–0 · 83–11–6
- 1′KICK-OFF Carrick Rangers v Newry City AFC
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Carrick Rangers win: 83% at kick-off, 73% now
- 36′We said Carrick Rangers at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 71%. 0–0 · 71–20–8
- 41′We said Carrick Rangers at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 69–23–8
- 45′HALF-TIME Carrick Rangers 0–0 Newry City AFC
- 46′SECOND HALF Carrick Rangers 0–0 Newry City AFC
- 49′We said Carrick Rangers at 83%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 64–27–9
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Carrick Rangers win: 83% at kick-off, 63% now
- 54′Carrick Rangers find the net on 54′. 1–0. 1–0 · 91–8–1
- 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Carrick Rangers 1–0 Newry City AFC
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Carrick Rangers win: 83% at kick-off, 91% now
- 68′A red card for Carrick Rangers on 68′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 92–8–1
- 68′🟥 RED CARD · 68' Carrick Rangers
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Carrick Rangers win: 83% at kick-off, 93% now
- 77′A goal for Carrick Rangers on 76′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 77′We published Carrick Rangers at 83%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Carrick Rangers 2–0 Newry City AFC
- 85′Carrick Rangers score on 85′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Carrick Rangers 3–0 Newry City AFC
- FTFULL TIME Carrick Rangers 3–0 Newry City AFC
- FTCarrick Rangers 3–0 Newry City AFC · Carrick Rangers win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–0 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Carrick Rangers are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Carrick Rangers 83%, draw 11%, Newry City AFC 6%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
Carrick Rangers win83%Newry City AFC win6%Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45
RoundRound of 32
VenueLoughview Leisure Arena
Match timeline
All events
Carrick RangersMINNewry City AFCEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Carrick Rangers
Newry City AFC
Last match: 17 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership
Last match: 17 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Carrick Rangers an 83% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.1–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carrick Rangers win | 83% | 76% | +7 |
| Draw | 11% | 16% | −5 |
| Newry City AFC win | 6% | 8% | −2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 65% | +9 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | 82% | +8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | 45% | +9 |
| Carrick Rangers or draw | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Carrick Rangers clean sheet | 47% | – | – |
| Newry City AFC clean sheet | 5% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · League Cup this season
CARRICK RANGERS
No matches in our record yet.
NEWRY CITY AFC
No matches in our record yet.