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Model 1.2

Home › Football › League Cup › Annagh United v Limavady United

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Annagh United v Limavady United

Annagh United
3–4Full time
Limavady United

League Cup · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 22:30
Annagh United 3–4 Limavady United ANNAGH UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Annagh United win37%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.616
The market’s Brier score0.561

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Annagh United win at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Annagh United was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–36
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Annagh United v Limavady United
  4. 30′Limavady United score on 30′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–22–67
  5. 30′We said Annagh United at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–22–67
  6. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 12–22–67
  7. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Annagh United 0–1 Limavady United
  8. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Annagh United win: 37% at kick-off, 12% now
  9. 30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Limavady United win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Annagh United win 34%)
  10. 31′Annagh United find the net on 31′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–34–32
  11. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Annagh United 1–1 Limavady United
  12. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Annagh United win: 37% at kick-off, 33% now
  13. 34′A goal for Limavady United on 34′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 11–22–67
  14. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Annagh United 1–2 Limavady United
  15. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Annagh United win: 37% at kick-off, 11% now
  16. 35′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 11–22–68
  17. 41′We said Annagh United at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–22–69
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Annagh United 1–2 Limavady United
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Annagh United 1–2 Limavady United
  20. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Annagh United win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  21. 54′We said Annagh United at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–94
  22. 54′54′: J. Butcher on the scoresheet for Limavady United, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
  23. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Annagh United 1–3 Limavady United
  24. 55′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–5–94
  25. 75′A red card for Limavady United on 75′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–3 · 0–2–98
  26. 75′🟥 RED CARD · 75' Limavady United
  27. 76′Annagh United find the net on 76′. 2–3. 2–3 · 2–14–85
  28. 76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Annagh United 2–3 Limavady United
  29. 77′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 1–13–86
  30. 80′A goal for Annagh United on 80′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 12–77–12
  31. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Annagh United 3–3 Limavady United
  32. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Annagh United win: 37% at kick-off, 12% now
  33. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Limavady United win 88%)
  34. 81′6 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–3 · 11–79–11
  35. 84′Limavady United score on 84′ to make it 3–4. 3–4 · 0–7–92
  36. 84′That is 7, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–4 · 0–7–92
  37. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Annagh United 3–4 Limavady United
  38. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Annagh United win: 37% at kick-off, under 1% now
  39. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Limavady United win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 85%)
  40. FTFULL TIME Annagh United 3–4 Limavady United
  41. FTAnnagh United 3–4 Limavady United · Annagh United win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Annagh United just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Annagh United 37%, draw 27%, Limavady United 36%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Annagh United v Limavady UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Annagh United win37%
Draw27%
Limavady United win36%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Annagh United

Limavady United

3Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

Last match: 17 Oct · the Northern Irish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · annagh united winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
37% The market34%
Us37%
Market34%

We make Annagh United a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Annagh United v Limavady United1.30 – 1.28
The market · Annagh United win34% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 19:15
Our probability · Annagh United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Annagh United win37%34%+3
Draw27%27%0
Limavady United win36%39%−3
Over 2.5 goals47%55%−8
Both teams to score52%59%−7
Over 1.5 goals72%77%−5
Over 3.5 goals26%35%−9
Annagh United or draw64%61%+3
Annagh United clean sheet28%––
Limavady United clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 8.0 9.7 6.2 2.7 1 9.8 12.5 7.9 3.4 2 6.4 8.0 5.1 2.2 3 2.8 3.5 2.2 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Annagh United down, Limavady United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2019/20
Goals a meeting3.33
Over 2.54 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsANN 0–2 LIM · LIM 1–3 ANN · LIM 1–0 ANN · ANN 2–0 LIM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League Cup this season

ANNAGH UNITED

No matches in our record yet.

LIMAVADY UNITED

No matches in our record yet.