Strabane Athletic v Loughgall prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 23:01

Strabane Athletic 1–1 Loughgall LOUGHGALL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Loughgall win~~42%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.813

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Loughgall are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Strabane Athletic 31%, draw 27%, Loughgall 42%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Strabane Athletic v LoughgallBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Strabane Athletic win31%

Draw27%

Loughgall win42%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Strabane Athletic

Loughgall

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Loughgall	11	−6	13
14	Strabane Athletic	11	−10	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · loughgall winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

42% The market49%

Us42%

~~Market~~49%

We make Loughgall a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Strabane Athletic v Loughgall~~1.14 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 13~~14 v 12

~~The market · Loughgall win~~49% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Loughgall win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Strabane Athletic win	31%	25%	+6
Draw	27%	26%	+1
Loughgall win	42%	49%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	52%	−6
Both teams to score	51%	55%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	32%	−7
Strabane Athletic or draw	58%	51%	+7
Strabane Athletic clean sheet	25%	–	–
Loughgall clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.3 11.0 7.7 3.6 1 9.1 12.5 8.5 4.0 2 5.2 7.0 4.9 2.3 3 2.0 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Strabane Athletic down, Loughgall across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,236 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Strabane Athletic at home: 0.80 scored, 1.40 conceded a game (last 5). Loughgall away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Strabane Athletic, 1.39 for Loughgall. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~LOU 2–2 STR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

STRABANE ATHLETIC

LDDWDL0–6 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

LOUGHGALL

LLDLWL1–6 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Annagh United	11	+11	22
2	Glenavon FC	11	+12	21
3	Newington Youth	11	+4	20
4	Queen's University	11	+12	19
5	Newry City AFC	11	0	18
6	Warrenpoint Town	11	+4	17
7	Institute	11	+3	17
8	Ballinamallard United	11	+1	17
9	H&W Welders	11	+2	16
10	Ards	11	+1	15
11	Moyola Park	11	−9	14
12	Loughgall	11	−6	13
13	Dundela	11	−4	11
14	Strabane Athletic	11	−10	9
15	Rathfriland	11	−12	9
16	Armagh City	11	−9	5