Strabane Athletic v Ballinamallard United prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Strabane Athletic 0–1 Ballinamallard United STRABANE ATHLETIC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Strabane Athletic win~~38%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.613

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.509

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Strabane Athletic just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Strabane Athletic 38%, draw 26%, Ballinamallard United 36%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Strabane Athletic v Ballinamallard UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Strabane Athletic win38%

Draw26%

Ballinamallard United win36%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Strabane Athletic

Ballinamallard United

3Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Ballinamallard United	12	+1	18
15	Strabane Athletic	12	−10	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · strabane athletic winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market31%

Us38%

~~Market~~31%

We make Strabane Athletic a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Strabane Athletic v Ballinamallard United~~1.36 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 18~~15 v 8

~~The market · Strabane Athletic win~~31% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Strabane Athletic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Strabane Athletic win	38%	31%	+7
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Ballinamallard United win	36%	42%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	50%	51%	−1
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	75%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
Strabane Athletic or draw	64%	58%	+6
Strabane Athletic clean sheet	27%	–	–
Ballinamallard United clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.1 9.0 6.0 2.7 1 9.2 12.2 8.0 3.6 2 6.3 8.1 5.4 2.4 3 2.9 3.7 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Strabane Athletic down, Ballinamallard United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,244 Championship matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Strabane Athletic at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ballinamallard United away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Strabane Athletic, 1.33 for Ballinamallard United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 11 Sept

STRABANE ATHLETIC

DDWDLD2–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

BALLINAMALLARD UNITED

DWLDWD1–1 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Annagh United	12	+13	25
2	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
3	Newington Youth	12	+5	23
4	Queen's University	12	+12	20
5	Institute	12	+5	20
6	Newry City AFC	12	0	19
7	Warrenpoint Town	12	+4	18
8	Ballinamallard United	12	+1	18
9	H&W Welders	12	−2	16
10	Ards	12	−1	15
11	Loughgall	12	−6	14
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	−11	12
14	Dundela	12	−5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	12	−10	10
16	Armagh City	12	−11	5