Rathfriland v Strabane Athletic prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RathfrilandDrawStrabane Athletic

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Rathfriland 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rathfriland are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rathfriland 43%, draw 25%, Strabane Athletic 32%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Rathfriland v Strabane AthleticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Rathfriland win43%

Draw25%

Strabane Athletic win32%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rathfriland

Strabane Athletic

10Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

Last match: 23 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Rathfriland	12	−11	12
15	Strabane Athletic	13	−11	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rathfriland winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Rathfriland a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rathfriland v Strabane Athletic~~1.50 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~13 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rathfriland win	43%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Strabane Athletic win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Rathfriland or draw	68%	–	–
Rathfriland clean sheet	29%	–	–
Strabane Athletic clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.7 8.0 5.0 2.1 1 9.6 11.8 7.3 3.1 2 7.1 8.7 5.4 2.3 3 3.6 4.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rathfriland down, Strabane Athletic across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,246 Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rathfriland at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Strabane Athletic away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Rathfriland, 1.25 for Strabane Athletic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~RAT 2–5 STR · STR 0–3 RAT · STR 2–1 RAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

RATHFRILAND

LWLWWW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

STRABANE ATHLETIC

DWDLDL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Newington Youth	13	+7	26
2	Annagh United	12	+13	25
3	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	+2	21
5	Queen's University	12	+12	20
6	Institute	12	+5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	−2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	+4	18
9	H&W Welders	12	−2	16
10	Ards	12	−1	15
11	Loughgall	12	−6	14
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	−11	12
14	Dundela	12	−5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	−11	10
16	Armagh City	12	−11	5