Rathfriland v Moyola Park prediction · Championship

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Rathfriland are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rathfriland 43%, draw 24%, Moyola Park 33%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Rathfriland v Moyola ParkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Rathfriland win43%

Draw24%

Moyola Park win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rathfriland

Moyola Park

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	−11	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rathfriland winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Rathfriland a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rathfriland v Moyola Park~~1.64 – 1.40

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 14~~13 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rathfriland win	43%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Moyola Park win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Rathfriland or draw	67%	–	–
Rathfriland clean sheet	25%	–	–
Moyola Park clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.1 6.8 4.8 2.2 1 7.9 10.9 7.5 3.6 2 6.4 8.7 6.1 2.9 3 3.5 4.8 3.3 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rathfriland down, Moyola Park across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,246 Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rathfriland at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Moyola Park away: 1.40 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Rathfriland, 1.40 for Moyola Park. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~RAT 0–1 MOY · MOY 2–1 RAT · MOY 0–3 RAT · RAT 2–3 MOY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

RATHFRILAND

LWLWWW0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0

MOYOLA PARK

LDWLWL2–6 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Newington Youth	13	+7	26
2	Annagh United	12	+13	25
3	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	+2	21
5	Queen's University	12	+12	20
6	Institute	12	+5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	−2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	+4	18
9	H&W Welders	12	−2	16
10	Ards	12	−1	15
11	Loughgall	12	−6	14
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	−11	12
14	Dundela	12	−5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	−11	10
16	Armagh City	12	−11	5