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Rathfriland v Armagh City

Rathfriland

2–1Full time

Armagh City

Championship · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 23:00

Rathfriland 2–1 Armagh City RATHFRILAND WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Rathfriland win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.238

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Rathfriland win60%

Draw20%

Armagh City win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rathfriland winPublished 9 Oct 22:31

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Rathfriland a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rathfriland win	60%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Armagh City win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Rathfriland or draw	80%	–	–
Rathfriland clean sheet	32%	–	–
Armagh City clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.7 4.2 2.5 1 7.7 8.9 5.2 2.1 2 8.2 9.4 5.5 2.2 3 6.0 6.8 4.0 4 3.4 3.8 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rathfriland down, Armagh City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,228 Championship matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Rathfriland at home: 0.60 scored, 1.80 conceded a game (last 5). Armagh City away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Rathfriland, 1.17 for Armagh City. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Championship

RATHFRILAND

LLLWLW1–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1

ARMAGH CITY

LDLDLD0–1 · 2–2 · 3–5 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Annagh United	10	+11	21
2	Glenavon FC	10	+12	20
3	Newington Youth	10	+6	20
4	Queen's University	10	+13	19
5	Institute	10	+3	16
6	H&W Welders	10	+2	15
7	Newry City AFC	10	−2	15
8	Warrenpoint Town	10	+3	14
9	Ballinamallard United	10	0	14
10	Loughgall	10	−5	13
11	Ards	10	−1	12
12	Dundela	10	−2	11
13	Moyola Park	10	−10	11
14	Strabane Athletic	10	−9	9
15	Rathfriland	10	−13	6
16	Armagh City	10	−8	5