Queen's University v Newry City AFC prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Queen's University 1–1 Newry City AFC QUEEN'S UNIVERSITY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Queen's University win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.966

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Queen's University are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Queen's University 57%, draw 23%, Newry City AFC 21%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Queen's University v Newry City AFCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Queen's University win57%

Draw23%

Newry City AFC win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Queen's University

Newry City AFC

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

Last match: 9 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Queen's University	11	+12	19
6	Newry City AFC	11	0	18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · queen's university winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Queen's University a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Queen's University v Newry City AFC~~1.88 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 19 v 18~~5 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Queen's University win	57%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Newry City AFC win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Queen's University or draw	79%	–	–
Queen's University clean sheet	36%	–	–
Newry City AFC clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.9 5.7 3.0 1 10.3 10.5 5.4 2 9.6 9.5 4.9 3 6.0 6.0 3.1 4 2.9 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Queen's University down, Newry City AFC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,240 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.8% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Queen's University at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Newry City AFC away: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for Queen's University, 1.03 for Newry City AFC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NEW 0–0 QUE · QUE 0–1 NEW · QUE 0–2 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 4 Sept

QUEEN'S UNIVERSITY

WWLLWL6–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

NEWRY CITY AFC

DDDWLW2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
2	Newington Youth	12	+5	23
3	Annagh United	11	+11	22
4	Institute	12	+5	20
5	Queen's University	11	+12	19
6	Newry City AFC	11	0	18
7	Warrenpoint Town	11	+4	17
8	Ballinamallard United	11	+1	17
9	H&W Welders	12	−2	16
10	Ards	12	−1	15
11	Loughgall	12	−6	14
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Dundela	11	−4	11
14	Strabane Athletic	12	−10	10
15	Rathfriland	11	−12	9
16	Armagh City	11	−9	5