Newry City AFC v Newington Youth prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:30

Newry City AFC 0–2 Newington Youth NEWINGTON YOUTH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newington Youth win~~45%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.461

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.611

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newington Youth are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newry City AFC 34%, draw 21%, Newington Youth 45%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Newry City AFC v Newington YouthBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Newry City AFC win34%

Draw21%

Newington Youth win45%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 13

VenueThe Showgrounds

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newry City AFC

Newington Youth

3Days since last match3

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Newington Youth	12	+5	23
6	Newry City AFC	12	0	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · newington youth winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:19 · locked at kick-off

45% The market37%

Us45%

~~Market~~37%

We make Newington Youth a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Newry City AFC v Newington Youth~~1.82 – 2.11

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 19 v 23~~6 v 3

~~The market · Newington Youth win~~37% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Newington Youth win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newry City AFC win	34%	38%	−4
Draw	21%	25%	−4
Newington Youth win	45%	37%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	74%	64%	+10
Both teams to score	73%	66%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	90%	82%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	55%	44%	+11
Newry City AFC or draw	55%	63%	−8
Newry City AFC clean sheet	13%	–	–
Newington Youth clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.7%

0123450 2.2 4.2 4.4 3.1 1 3.7 7.6 7.7 5.4 2.9 2 3.4 6.8 6.9 4.8 2.6 3 2.1 4.1 4.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newry City AFC down, Newington Youth across0–5 goals a side shown (96.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,244 Championship matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 96 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newry City AFC at home: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Newington Youth away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Newry City AFC, 2.11 for Newington Youth. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~Newington Youth 3–2 Newry City AFC · Newry City AFC 0–1 Newington Youth · Newry City AFC 3–1 Newington Youth · Newington Youth 3–3 Newry City AFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 11 Sept

NEWRY CITY AFC

DDWLWD2–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 1–1

NEWINGTON YOUTH

DLWLLW5–5 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–7 · 0–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Annagh United	12	+13	25
2	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
3	Newington Youth	12	+5	23
4	Queen's University	12	+12	20
5	Institute	12	+5	20
6	Newry City AFC	12	0	19
7	Warrenpoint Town	12	+4	18
8	Ballinamallard United	12	+1	18
9	H&W Welders	12	−2	16
10	Ards	12	−1	15
11	Loughgall	12	−6	14
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	−11	12
14	Dundela	12	−5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	12	−10	10
16	Armagh City	12	−11	5