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Newry City AFC v Dundela

Newry City AFC

3–1Full time

Dundela

Championship · FRI 9 OCT · The Showgrounds

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 22:30

Newry City AFC 3–1 Dundela NEWRY CITY AFC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newry City AFC win~~43%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.492

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.379

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Newry City AFC win43%

Draw22%

Dundela win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:45

Venue · The Showgrounds

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · newry city afc winPublished 9 Oct 21:34

43% The market50%

Us43%

~~Market~~50%

We make Newry City AFC a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · newry city afc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newry City AFC win	43%	50%	−7
Draw	22%	25%	−2
Dundela win	34%	26%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	65%	61%	+4
Both teams to score	66%	63%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	80%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	44%	42%	+2
Newry City AFC or draw	66%	74%	−9
Newry City AFC clean sheet	21%	–	–
Dundela clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.6 5.4 4.3 2.3 1 6.2 9.6 7.5 4.0 2 5.5 8.4 6.6 3.5 3 3.3 5.1 4.0 2.1 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newry City AFC down, Dundela across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,228 Championship matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newry City AFC at home: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dundela away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for Newry City AFC, 1.59 for Dundela. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NEW 1–1 DUN · NEW 0–2 DUN · DUN 1–0 NEW · NEW 1–0 DUN

Form · last six in Championship

NEWRY CITY AFC

WDDDWL3–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–2

DUNDELA

LWDDWL0–2 · 3–2 · 5–5 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Annagh United	10	+11	21
2	Glenavon FC	10	+12	20
3	Newington Youth	10	+6	20
4	Queen's University	10	+13	19
5	Institute	10	+3	16
6	H&W Welders	10	+2	15
7	Newry City AFC	10	−2	15
8	Warrenpoint Town	10	+3	14
9	Ballinamallard United	10	0	14
10	Loughgall	10	−5	13
11	Ards	10	−1	12
12	Dundela	10	−2	11
13	Moyola Park	10	−10	11
14	Strabane Athletic	10	−9	9
15	Rathfriland	10	−13	6
16	Armagh City	10	−8	5